NEW MOVEMENT IN "NEW EUROPE"...
Back in September, the Obama administration's announcement that it would not deploy ground-based missile defenses in Eastern Europe seemed to sound the death knell for any plans for a European missile shield. But some six months later, such a shield is emerging - albeit in modified form. Reuters (February 21) reports that the Polish Defense Ministry has announced plans to install a battery of the U.S. Patriot anti-missile system on its soil in early April. The deployment, which will be accompanied by a 100-person contingent of supporting personnel, is the result of an agreement between Washington and Warsaw signed back in December and aimed at strengthening NATO defenses in Europe following the administration’s scrapping of the Bush-era plans for a "third site" in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Meanwhile, Itar-TASS (February 23) is reporting that the Moldovan government has backed the possible placement of U.S. missile defenses in neighboring Romania - a plan now under discussion between Washington and Bucharest. “The government has taken into consideration Romanian-American agreements concerning prospects to deploy in Romania elements of a missile defence system in Europe, as well as its openness for participation of other interested parties with an aim of strengthening general security,” an official statement from Chisinau says. “Each state has the right to decide itself in accordance with its national interests as to the system and mechanisms for ensuring its own security.” The move reflects Moldova's jitters over Russia's increasingly assertive foreign policy toward the former Soviet Bloc and Eurozone - a policy that has led the Kremlin to vehemently oppose the presence of any American anti-missile capabilities in Eastern Europe.
...AMID INTRANSIGENCE IN ISTANBUL
Turkey, on the other hand, has been far cooler to the idea of missile defense cooperation. Azerbaijan's news.az website (February 22) reports that the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in in Ankara has declined to conclude an agreement with the U.S. regarding the placement of radar systems on its territory. The radar systems would have been used to supplement U.S. plans for a European anti-missile shield. But Turkey, increasingly sensitive of the need to maintain a balance in its relations with Iran and the U.S., has indicated that it does not want to be involved in any agreement that will be perceived as targeting one at the expense of the other. Yet Ankara has left open the possibility of stationing the radar under NATO auspices pursuant to multilateral agreement. “Turkey considers that in case of [placement] of a radar in its territory, it must become a part of the overall missile defense system of the North Atlantic Alliance financed from the NATO budget,” the website reports, citing Russia's Itar-TASS news agency.
A NUCLEAR FOOTBALL OF A DIFFERENT SORT
The nation’s Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), already a month overdue, will be delayed again. Foreign Policy magazine (February 25) reports that the delay stems from a rift within the Administration over “declaratory policy,” a statement detailing when the U.S. reserves the right to use nuclear weapons, particularly in the event of a biological or chemical attack or in a "first strike" scenario. The dispute pits the office of Vice President Joe Biden - which favors a restrictive interpretation of any such declaration - against Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who is said to be looking to preserve the military’s flexibility in the matter. The internal tug-of-war has taken its toll on the NPR, which is now not expected to be released until mid- to late March, postponing important decisions on U.S. policy toward potential nuclear rivals such as Russia and China.
ZERO-SUM IN SOUTH ASIA
India’s defense modernization is raising tensions in South Asia. According to the Agence France Presse (February 25), India’s investment in its military will reach $30 billion by 2012. The military buildup, which includes the recent introduction of a nuclear missile capable of traveling farther than any currently in India’s arsenal, has stoked tensions with rival Pakistan. Islamabad has expressed concern that India’s moves will destabilize the region. “This is a nuclearized region, and it is important that Pakistan and India engage meaningfully on the whole range of issues under regional peace and security,” Pakistani Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir has said. Bashir has also criticized statements by India’s army chief indicating that New Delhi should prepare itself to fight a two-front war -- a reflection of Delhi's ongoing distrust of neighboring Islamabad, and of India's mounting unease over China.
Want these sent to your inbox?
Subscribe