SAUDI-IRAQ EMBRACE
Saudi Arabia and Iraq appear may be experiencing a thaw in relations, after a prolonged period turbulence following the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. A major step in the normalization of relations was taken when Saudi Arabia announced its ambassador to Jordan would also serve as its ambassador to Iraq. Saudi Arabia had not had a diplomatic presence in Iraq since 2003. In a sign of reciprocity, Iraqi officials close to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki visited Saudi Arabia recently and signed a security agreement while Maliki has hinted that he may pay a formal visit to the Kingdom soon as well. The rapprochement has the potential to shift the regional dynamics of the Middle East. A closer Saudi-Iraqi relationship could draw Iraq away from Saudi Arabia’s regional rival, Iran, and more closely align Baghdad with the Sunni Arab Gulf states. In this vein, Iraqis have begun to take a tougher tone against Syria, voting for a United Nations resolution condemning the Syrian government’s actions in relation to that regime’s crackdown. The moves come ahead of an Arab League summit in Baghdad at the end of March. (The Washington Post, March 4, 2012)
TAJIKISTAN FEELING SOCIAL MEDIA HEAT
The government in Tajikistan has blocked local access to Facebook as well as two Russian sites that published an article critical of Tajikistan’s president. The Tajik government, along with other Central Asian regimes, has been wary of social media sites because of their role in the Arab Spring and recent Russian protests. Shortly after the articles in mention were published, the state-run communications service ordered internet providers to block the two Russian sites and Facebook, which is used by many Tajiks to express dissent. Tajik president Emomali Rahmon, the target of the articles’ criticism, has ruled the country for two decades. Over the past several years, the government has led a crackdown on religious groups, arrested journalists, and imprisoned around 150 people on charges that include extremism and subverting the constitution. (Reuters, March 3, 2012)
RARE PROTEST VICTORY IN AZERBAIJAN
Protesters in Azerbaijan succeeded in convincing the central government to dismiss a governor following the regional leader’s comments that Azerbaijani citizens in one province were “sellouts.” The “offensive” statements were in reference to a recent surge of Azerbaijanis selling their homes in a mountain resort area. Following his remarks, Azerbaijanis surrounded his house and an arsonist set the structure aflame in protest to demand his removal from power. Observers note that the comments were merely the trigger for the protest, and that popular discontent is rooted in widespread anger over the corruption of local officials, which are appointed rather than elected. Aside from dismissing the governor, federal authorities quickly released several protestors that were arrested. The success of the protest is unusual in Azerbaijan, where political dissent is usually heavily restricted and authorities move quickly to disperse protests. Fear of an Arab Spring-like revolution in Azerbaijan may have led the government to offer concessions to avoid wider unrest. (The New York Times, March 1, 2012)
FINDING COMMON GROUND ON IRAN
As tension over how to grapple with Iran’s nuclear program grows, the leaders of the United States and Israel recently met to discuss their policy options. President Barack Obama tried to convince his counterpart, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to hold off on a unilateral strike against Iran in order to give more time for sanctions and diplomatic pressure to coerce Iran to abandon its rogue nuclear program. Israeli officials painted the talks in a positive light and agreed on the need to exert more diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran. During the talks, administration officials told their Israeli counterparts that Washington’s “red line” for potential military action was Iran’s possession of a nuclear weapon. In a speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee following the meeting, Netanyahu stated that he believed in a peaceful resolution to the problem if Iran abandoned its nuclear ambitions, but otherwise asserted that Israel had the right to act unilaterally to counter the threat arrayed against it. Obama assured Israel that it does indeed have a right to protect its national security interests, but administration officials believe that a pre-emptive unilateral Israeli strike could fracture the international coalition now arrayed against Iran. (The Washington Post, March 5, 2012)
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