Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1767

January 31:

The continuing rise of Islamic extremism in Tatarstan should be a cause for serious concern, a Russian expert has warned. The continuing rise of Islamic extremism in Tatarstan should be a cause for serious concernAt least three thousand people in the Russian republic are either supporters of "Wahhabism" or participants in its exclusionary practices, according to Rais Suleimanov, head of the Volga Regional Center for Religious and Ethnographic Studies. This, according to Interfax, signifies a critical mass of people who are willing to support fundamentalist Islamic ideas “materially or morally,” if not physically. Monitoring the activities of extremist Islamic groups in the Russian republic is complicated, however, as they frequently meet in private venues, and therefore operate without oversight of a mufti. Suleimanov believes that without intervention, such groups will work their way into regional government, and use these positions to further their causes.


February 1:

With the purchase of two French amphibious assault ships, the Kremlin has demonstrated its determination to modernize the Russia’s armed forces — with or without the help of the country’s domestic arms industry. The Russian government seeks to create a professional army like that of the UK and the U.S., reports the Financial Times, and is prepared to spend over $600 billion to do so. Abuses of national defense contracts - including unexplained price hikes, delays, and embezzlement of government funds - have become so commonplace in the domestic market, however, that the national defense industry has become almost a “state within a state.” The Kremlin’s efforts at defense-industrial reform, however, have been halting at best, according to the Times, and the recent purchase of the French assault ships makes clear to the country's country’s defense manufacturers that they must toe the official line, or be left behind.


February 3:

According to an international commission of experts, missile defense could prove to be a “game changer” for U.S.-Russian relations – this time for the better. The Euro-Atlantic Security Commission, a private working group jointly chaired by former U.S. National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, former German Defense Minister Volker Ruehe and former Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Trubnikov, has proposed that the U.S., NATO, and Russia share data from radars and satellites about missile attacks in order to create a more comprehensive picture of potential missile threats than any one of the three could obtain individually. The system, according to Reuters, would completely sidestep the issue of the proposed U.S.-backed missile shield in Europe, instead proposing that each country “keep sovereign command-and-control over their own missile interceptors.” “Successful cooperation on ballistic missile defense would... go a long way toward overcoming the legacy of historical suspicion and achieving the strategic transformation that is needed,” the proposal concluded.


February 4:

Thousands of people gathered in Moscow’s Bolotnaya Square have once more to protest Vladimir Putin’s government, but this time were countered by thousands of pro-government demonstrators as well. State media tallied the opposition gathering at about 35,000 people, and its own demonstration at a staggering 134,000,reports the Voice of America. Opposition leaders disputed the numbers, and insisted that their own rally involved well over 100,000 people, while complaints from state employees surfaced that they were “forced to attend a pro-Putin demonstration.”

February 5:

Hours before China and Russia vetoed the latest UN Security Council resolution condemning the regime of Syrian president Bashar Assad, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced plans for a state visit to Damascus. Though there was no specific goal affiliated with the trip, according to Reuters, the Foreign Ministry reported that Lavrov (along with Foreign Intelligence Service chief Mikhail Fradkov) would “at least press Assad... to make compromises.” Syria has long been Russia’s strongest ally in the Middle East, but some experts believe that Russia’s repeated support for the Assad regime is born out of Vladimir Putin’s desire for a show of the Kremlin’s power in the lead-up to the country’s presidential elections. Russia’s best hope of maintaining influence could be a “controlled demolition,” or a managed transition to a new government built with Assad’s allies, but without the controversial leader. While such a move would maintain the ties between Damascus and Moscow in the short term, the strategy risks alienating the rebel factions in the country, and could cost the Kremlin in the future if the Assad regime ultimately falls.

February 9:

Amnesty International has accused Russia and China of supplying weapons to the Sudanese government that are being used against the citizens of Darfur. There is “compelling evidence,” the group said, that the arms provided by Moscow and Beijing - including ammunition, helicopter gunships, attack aircrafts, and armored vehicles - are being used in the regime’s ongoing conflict with rebels in Western Sudan. According to the Voice of America, Amnesty International will now petition the UN to halt all current arms sales to the country, and levy an arms embargo to prevent future weapons sales. Current international regulations require only that governments acquire “guarantees” that purchased arms won’t be used to commit human rights violations.