EGYPT SECURITY FORCES TARGETED AS MORSI TRIAL SET
Ousted Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi will stand trial along with 14 other senior officials from the Muslim Brotherhood in November on counts of inciting murder and violence. In the run up to that trial, there has been a spike in attacks on the Egyptian security services, including a suicide bombing targeting Egypt’s interior minister in September and a massive explosion in the Sinai in early October that left two people dead and 48 wounded. Islamist militants, some with al-Qaeda links, have been attacking security forces in Sinai daily. Clashes between security forces and Islamist protesters on October 6, a national holiday, left 51 people dead, the bloodiest day of protests since August 14. (BBC News October 9, 2013, CBS News October 7, 2013)
REBELS TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE FOOTHOLD IN SYRIAN NORTH
In the quest of rebel fighters to complete their control of northern Syria, In an attempt to capture the remaining regime outposts in northern Syria, rebel forces dressed in camouflage shelled a fortified military installations of Hamidiyeh, though they have failed to retake the facility. The assault began on Monday and regime fighter jets hit opposition-held areas near the city twice the following day. At least 10 government soldiers and one rebel fighter were killed. Rebel forces already control most of the northern countryside, but the government is trying to hold on to military bases inside major cities. (The Washington Post October 8, 2013)
STOLEN U.S. MILITARY EQUIPMENT IN LIBYA IN DANGEROUS HANDS
In Libya, highly sensitive U.S. military equipment is now under the control of militia groups aligned with terror organizations and the Muslim Brotherhood. Hundreds of weapons, dozens of highly armored vehicles, and night-vision goggles that were used for training in Libya by U.S. Special Forces have been taken in raids since the summer. There is mounting concern that these tools will be used by militias and Salafists to overthrow the U.S.-backed government and install hardline Muslim leadership. One of the militia groups is hoarding weapons in a U.S. – developed training camp outside of Tripoli now under their control. (Fox News September 25, 2013)
HSBC SAYS MIDDLE EAST WILL LOSE $800BN FROM ARAB SPRING
The Arab Spring will cost the Middle East $800 billion in lost output by the end of next year, according to HSBC. The bank estimates that the unstable governments, the lack of rule-of-law, and high unemployment will cause the collective GDP of the hardest hit countries -- Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and Bahrain -- to be 35 percent lower at the end of 2014 than it would have been in the absence of the uprisings. HSBC predicted that GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will slow to 4 percent this year, down from 4.9 percent in 2011. (Reuters October 9, 2013)
MIDDLE EAST UNREST COULD HIT OIL PRICES
According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa could cause a surge in oil prices that may cut global growth by as much as 0.5 percentage points next year. World gross domestic product will increase by 3.6 percent in 2014, up from 2.9 percent this year. The IMF attributes this boost largely to an improving U.S. economy. Even an oil price spike to $150 per barrel would only cut growth by .13 percentage points. However, if a price spike causes investors to pull their money from riskier investments, it could cause "capital retreating to safe havens and a persistent decline in equity prices." (Bloomberg October 8, 2013)
TURKEY’S NUCLEAR PLANS PUT ON HOLD
The construction of Turkey's first nuclear power plant is falling behind schedule as "bureaucratic hurdles hamper the $20 billion project." The nuclear program is supposed to help reduce Turkey's dependence on expensive hydrocarbon imports by providing 10 percent of its electricity. Prime Minister Erdogan supports the program, but the project, originally projected to have all four planned reactors generating power by 2023, has still not obtained a construction license. The Turkish Atomic Energy Authority has canceled the necessary review of plans of the builder (Russia’s Rosatom) to ensure the design meets safety standards several times and it seems certain the plans will be delayed at least another year. (Reuters October 8, 2013)