South Asia Security Monitor: No. 330

INDO-PAK LEADERS TALK AMID LOC VIOLENCE
One of many high-level engagements surrounding the UN General Assembly gathering in New York this month was an hour-long exchange between Indian PM Manmohan Singh and Pakistani President Nawaz Sharif. The two discussed a recent spike in violence at the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir that has endangered the ten-year ceasefire in the disputed territory. Specifically, a major spike in tit-for-tat killings, artillery shelling, and at least one beheading, have raised tensions across the LoC after years of relative calm in Kashmir. (The Guardian, September 30, 2013)

TRAGEDY IN PAKISTAN
Two earthquakes in Baluchistan in the span of one week have left over 100,000 people homeless. The consecutive earthquakes have only aggravated an already tenuous security situation in Baluchistan, where Baluch separatists remain very much active. The province has been a favored route for drug trafficking and a base for Taliban operations into neighboring Afghanistan. Government relief efforts are hampered by a glaring lack of infrastructure in the region, which has been further degraded by the frequent earthquakes. Moreover, Baluch rebels have attacked aid forces, creating tension with a civilian population desperately in need humanitarian relief. (al-Jazeera, September 27, 2013)

INDIA TESTS AGNI-V
India recently completed the second successful test of its new Agni-V missile system. The Agni-V is the newest and most advanced of India’s domestically manufactured Agni missile series. The missile bolsters India’s nuclear deterrent, extending the reach of its missiles to 5,000 kilometers for the first time. Technically a Medium-Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM), as it falls just short of the threshold for an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), the Agni V nevertheless allows India to threaten any city in China, from nearly any position in India. Ravi Kumar Gupta, a spokesman for the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO), says the Agni-V is ready for “production and interdiction.” (al-Jazeera, September 15, 2013)

CHINA REVIEWS AFGHAN INVESTMENTS
Afghan President Karzai travelled to Beijing this month for meetings with President Xi Jingping and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang where he signed an extradition treaty as well as agreements on technical and economic cooperation, and education.. The China Metallurgical Group Corp (CMGC) is waiting to start work on a three billion dollar bid to excavate the Anyak copper mine in Logar province. The massive proposal, which has been pending for over six years, would represent the largest foreign investment in Afghanistan. The CMGC has promised to install a power plant and railway, though they may principally serve the mine operation. Due to delays and heightened post-2014 risk assessments, the CMGC is attempting to reduce its bid by $800 million, citing recent experience investing in other conflict zones like Libya and Syria. Despite these risks, China remains enticed by neighboring Afghanistan’s estimated $1 trillion in rare earth and precious metal reserves. (AP, September 27, 2013)