Eurasia Security Watch: No. 312

SYRIA REBELS WANT NEW ARMS
With peace talks in Geneva stalled, Syrian rebels are again appealing to the U.S. for advanced weapons. Western and Arab backers of the moderate rebels of the Free Syrian Army have pledged arms, but the FSA remains skeptical their pledges will be fulfilled. Without a centralized rebel command structure to channel aid through, the Obama administration has proceeded very cautiously. The defense minister in the opposition's interim government, Assad Mustafa, hopes to create such a structure in the Free Syrian Army that will put him in control of weapons supply and will allow the moderate rebels to combat Assad's forces and ISIS together. In one sign of the restructuring, General Salim Idriss, the head of the Supreme Military Council has been replaced by Abdul-Illah al-Bashir. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry directed blame at the Assad government for the failure of the Geneva talks and claims Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah are undermining the negotiations by continuing to channel military support and aid to the Syrian government. (The Washington Post February 18, 2014, The Washington Post February 17, 2014)

TURKEY’S ECONOMY TAKES A HIT AS GUL APPROVES INTERNET LAW
Anti-government protests, the Syrian Civil War, and a major government corruption scandal have all hobbled Turkish growth. Financial analysts are now including Turkey in the "Fragile Five" economies. Turkey’s economy is faltering on high inflation and surging consumer debt, foreign investors are fleeing, and the Turkish Central Bank’s decision to hike rates from 4% to 10% has slowed spending. Energy costs have become particularly high. Meanwhile, Turkish president Abdullah Gul approved a new law last week giving the government greater control over the internet. Critics say the new legislation, in combination with a recent law increasing executive power over the judiciary, threatens free speech and is further proof of Erdogan’s authoritarian tendencies. (USA Today February 17, 2014, Reuters February 18, 2014)

UN CONDEMNS EGYPTIAN MILITANTS THREAT TO TOURISTS
Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, a Sinai-based militant Islamist group, warned tourists to leave Egypt by February 20 or face attack. The same group took responsibility for a suicide bombing that killed two tourists and an Egyptian last week, marking a dangerous shift from attacks on police and security forces to soft targets, and the first time tourists have been targeted since President Mohammed Morsi was deposed. The government is taking the threat, announced on Twitter, seriously. Egypt's prime minister says Ansar is trying to undermine the country’s political process and thwart forthcoming elections. Recent violence is already crippling the tourist economy and Ansar's actions are likely to make the situation even worse. (Reuters February 18, 2014, BBC News February 18, 2014, Ahram Online February 18, 2014)

THREE JOURNALISTS TO BE TRIED IN EGYPT’S CRIMINAL COURT
Three journalists from the al-Jazeera's English news channel will go on trial in Egypt on Thursday. The three have been branded the "Marriot Terror Cell," and have been confined in Egypt's Tora prison for two months. The criminal court in Cairo is charging them with broadcasting false news, aiding or joining a terrorist organization, and endangering national security. They could be sentenced to several years in jail. The Egyptian government says the journalists were operating illegally without press passes. They are among 13 foreign and local journalists who have been imprisoned in Egypt, which is now ranked in the top 10 jailers of journalists in the world. The White House has called for the men's release. (BBC News February 19, 2014)

LIBYAN MILITIAS THREATEN GOVERNMENT
On Tuesday, the al-Sawaiq and al-Qaqa militia brigades demanded Libya's parliament relinquish power immediately. The government denounced the call as a coup attempt and the deadline passed without incident. However, the militia groups claim they have troops on standby and there were dozens of armed vehicles and anti-aircraft guns parked near government buildings last week. A commander claimed the Qaqa militia was ready to go into the assembly and arrest deputies, but extended their deadline by two days after talks mediated by the UN. The two militias are calling the current government a "dictatorship" since its mandate expired on February 7. Members of parliament agreed to prolong their term to give a special committee time to draft a new constitution. No date has yet been set for new elections. (Reuters February 18, 2014)