South Asia Security Monitor: No. 339

UN PROBES MYANMAR’S SECTARIAN VIOLENCE
A UN special investigator on human rights warned today that continuing outbreaks of sectarian violence could easily dismantle Myanmar’s democratic reform process if left unchecked. Myanmar has thus far denied any allegations concerning mass human rights abuses. The violence stems specifically from Buddhist-Muslim disputes in northern Rakhine state, and attacks have reportedly targeted civilian women and children. Despite “many improvements in the rights situation,” the UN plans to work closely with the Myanmar government to spearhead an investigation. (AP, February 19, 2014).

IAF UNPREPARED FOR TWO-FRONT DEFENSE
Due to a decrease in the number of operational fighter squadrons, the Indian Air Force (IAF) recently notified the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defense that it is unlikely India could counter a “collusive” threat from Pakistan and China. The IAF has plans for a “two-front war,” but is already operating at least seven squadrons below its target of 45. The IAF continues to lobby the Indian Defense Ministry to clear a long-pending deal to purchase 126 Medium Multi-role Combat Aircraft from the French company Dassault. The deal to purchase the Rafale fighters was signed nearly two years ago, but remains in limbo due to “trouble with its life-cycle cost calculation.” Indian Defense Minister AK Antony recently suggested that 14 squadrons of retiring MiG-21s and MiG27s would be replaced by the indigenously-built Light Combat Aircraft/Tejas fighter. The Tejas has faced several delays and cost overruns but was given initial operational clearance in 2013 and expects final operational clearance in 2014. (The Indian Express, February 11 and February 19, 2014).

AUSTRALIA, INDIA APPROACH URANIUM EXPORT DEAL
Australia may soon finalize a uranium export deal with India. The two nations met last week for the fourth time to draft a possible nuclear trade agreement (NTA), which would allow “energy-hungry” India to further expand its civilian nuclear program. Australia holds the world’s largest uranium reserves. Australia long shunned uranium sales to India as it remained a non-party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, but since the U.S. and India signed a civilian nuclear deal in 2005, and the United States helped carve out a series of special exemptions for India at various international regulatory bodies, Australia has warmed to the idea of exporting uranium to India, lifting its ban on sales to India over a year ago. (Global Security Newswire, February 18, 2014).

TALIBAN KILLINGS SUSPEND PAKISTAN TALKS
The on-again-off-again negotiations between the Pakistani government and the Taliban-appointed representatives were suspended this week after the Taliban allegedly killed 23 paramilitary soldiers in captivity. While the Pakistani Taliban’s representatives seemed disappointed at the canceled talks, other Taliban factions cautioned of more attacks. “We want to make it clear to the government that we know how to take revenge,” one faction said. Elsewhere, the Afghan Taliban shot down any prospects for talks with the Afghan government after representatives from the Afghan High Peace Council traveled to Dubai in the hopes of meeting with former and current representatives of the Afghan Taliban. (The New York Times, February 17, 2014; Reuters February 19, 2014).