Global Islamism Monitor No. 119

Related Categories: Human Rights and Humanitarian Issues; Islamic Extremism; Terrorism; Warfare; Corruption; Russia; United States; West Africa

THE TALIBAN'S EXPANDING INTERNATIONAL PROFILE
Three years on from the U.S. pullout and subsequent Taliban takeover, Afghanistan's new Islamist government is seeking to build diplomatic ties to other nations - and meeting with considerable success. The Taliban's Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, has said that his ministry sent dozens of its diplomats to eleven separate countries this year in a bid to rebuild severed ties. All told, the Taliban now controls 39 embassies and consulates globally, with the UAE and China officially accepting the movement's ambassadors in their capitals.

The Taliban's charm offensive has paid concrete dividends in Russia as well. Back in September, the government of Vladimir Putin signaled that it was rethinking the group;s designation as a foreign terrorist organization. In early October, Russia's state-controlled TASS news agency confirmed that a decision to delist the Taliban had been made "at the highest levels" in Moscow - and now needs to go through a number of legal procedures in order to fully take effect. (Reuters, September 19, 2024; Reuters, October 4, 2024)

PALESTINIAN PUBLIC OPINION BEGINS TO SHIFT, FINALLY
Nearly a year after Hamas' October 7th assault on Israel, Palestinian public opinion appears to be belatedly shifting against the Islamist faction. According to the latest poll carried out by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) in September, 57% of Palestinians now deem the attack "incorrect" - a significant decline from the June poll, where 57% of Palestinians supported the October 7th attack. While a proportionally higher percentage of respondents in the West Bank, 64%, remain supportive of Hamas' campaign of terror, that figure is also in decline compared to prior surveys. (Reuters, September 17, 2024)

ISLAMISM SURGES IN SOMALIA
The Islamic State terrorist group has doubled its size in northern Somalia this year, a top U.S. military commander has warned. "I am concerned about the northern part of Somalia and ISIS growing in numbers," Gen. Michael Langley, the commander of U.S. Africa Command, recently told the Voice of America. Langley cited a "twofold" increase in the group’s troop strength - and while AFRICOM has not provided exact numbers, previous estimates place the number of ISIS men under arms in Somalia at roughly 200.

At the same time, other extremist actors are also showing signs of increased life. The al-Qaeda-connected al-Shabaab, for instance, has increased its recruitment numbers by exploiting the disagreements between Ethiopia and Somalia. The political disputes have limited Adidas Abba and Mogadishu's counterterrorism efforts, allowing al-Shabaab to continue its attacks in the region. And more could be in store; defense officials assert that Yemen's Houthi rebels have "aspirations to collaborate with al-Shabaab" - potentially creating an ominous gauntlet of Islamist activity in the Gulf of Aden that could make it a major chokepoint for global commerce. (Voice of America, October 1, 2024)

FLASHPOINT: WEST AFRICA
West Africa is experiencing a surge of Islamist activity, as both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State ramp up operations in the region. In recent weeks, jihadists affiliated with both groups have attacked various West African targets, killing students at an elite police training academy, storming the airport in Mali's capital, Bamako, and setting a presidential jet on fire. The stepped up activity is a sign of growing disorder in the wake of successive regional coups and the withdrawal of Western troops, which have allowed jihadists freer reign, particularly in the Sahel. And while the security vacuum left by the departure of Western forces has led local military juntas to seek support from the notorious Wagner Group, Russia's mercenary outfit has as yet done little of substance to mitigate the threat.

In turn, the deteriorating state of affairs in West Africa is beginning to reverberate in Europe, as rising violence there has accelerated outbound migration. The United Nations International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that the number of migrants arriving to Europe from the Sahel has risen some 62% in 2024. (Reuters, September 24, 2024)