Global Islamism Monitor No. 124

Related Categories: Islamic Extremism; Public Diplomacy and Information Operations; Terrorism; Afghanistan; China; Iran; Israel; Middle East; Saudi Arabia; Turkey; Ukraine

AFGHANISTAN'S OTHER ISLAMISTS REAR THEIR HEADS...
Is the Islamic State making a comeback in Afghanistan? A mid-December suicide bombing in Kabul took the life of Minister of Refugees and Reptriation Khalil-Ur-Rahman Haqqani - and put the country's ruling Taliban on notice that the threat from the rival Islamic State remains very real. The group's regional franchise, known as the Islamic State Khorasan Province, or IS-K, has successfully assassinated at least eight Taliban officials since the movement regained power on the heels of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan in August of 2021.

The persistence of the Islamic State has the potential to become a political problem for the Taliban, which has sought in recent months to ease its international isolation by reestablishing contacts with a growing number of countries. Some of those nations are now worried over future Afghan stability. "Terrorist forces in Afghanistan such as Daesh, al-Qaida and ETIM/TIP still pose a major threat to international peace and security," China's ambassador to the United Nations, Fu Cong, recently said. "We call on the Afghan interim government to take counterterrorism measures to eradicate the breeding ground for terrorism and prevent Afghanistan from becoming a gathering place for terrorist organizations again." (Voice of America, December 13, 2024)

...AS RIYADH MOVES CLOSER TO KABUL
Nevertheless, the Taliban's international momentum has continued apace. Most recently, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has moved to reopen its embassy in Kabul, reestablishing diplomatic contacts with Afghanistan after an interregnum of more than three years. The news has been greeted enthusiastically by the Islamist movement. "We are optimistic about the possibility of strengthening relations and cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan through the resumption of these activities," a spokesman for the Afghan foreign ministry spokesperson has said. (Foreign Desk News, December 24, 2024)

BRACING FOR AN IMPERIAL TURKEY
The rapid collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria at the hands of Islamist opposition forces took a key Iranian proxy off the board. But in its wake, Israeli officials are nervously eyeing another potential challenge: a resurgence of Sunni radicalism, backstopped by an increasingly powerful and imperial-minded Turkey. An Israeli government-led committee recently warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Turkey was exhibiting increasingly overt regional ambitions - which could bring them into direct confrontation with Jerusalem in the future. ​​"The threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat," the latest analysis from the Nagel Committee lays out. In response, the committee counsels, Israel needs to ramp up its defense expenditures, "increasing the defense budget by up to NIS 15 billion annually over the next five years to ensure the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are equipped to handle challenges posed by Turkey, alongside other regional threats," the Jerusalem Post relays. (Jerusalem Post, January 6, 2025)

HOW HEZBOLLAH AND IRAN ARE ADAPTING
Following the collapse of the Assad regime in Damascus, Lebanon's militant Hezbollah movement lost its supply routes in Syria. The Iranian proxy had previously relied on this channel to transport weapons and military equipment provided by the Islamic Republic into Lebanon. But, post-Assad, Syrian rebels have closed the country's common border with Iraq and ended Hezbollah's ability to move arms and equipment via this route.

That, in turn, is leading the group - and its paymasters in Tehran - to shift tactics. "Mahan Air, known for its ties to the Quds Force's smuggling network, operated frequent flights in mid-December 2024 to Beirut via Turkey," writes Hezbollah expert Yossi Mansharof in a new analysis for Israel's ALMA Research and Education Center. "These flights raise a strong suspicion that Iran is seeking to establish a new smuggling route for Hezbollah." (Reuters, December 14, 2024; ALMA, January 16, 2025)