CRACKS IN THE TALIBAN CONSENSUS...
Since returning to power in Kabul in August of 2021, the Taliban has worked diligently to re-impose its draconian, austere brand of Islamism on the Afghan population. This has included dramatic restrictions on activities permitted to Afghan women, including a ban on female education beyond primary school. Those restrictions have persisted, despite international condemnation and widespread outcry. Now, however, voices from within the Islamist movement itself are beginning to make the case in favor of their relaxation. In late January, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, the movement's acting deputy foreign minister, broke with his government's official stance to call for Taliban leaders to "open the doors of education" for the more than 20 million women and girls who have been left bereft of schooling. Stanekezai, moreover, is no fringe politician. He previously served as the chief negotiator at the Taliban's political office in Doha ahead of the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan in 2021. (Reuters, January 20, 2025)
...AND MORE MOVEMENT TOWARD INTERNATIONAL REHABILITATION
Southwest Asian neighbors Afghanistan and Iran have long had a tense relationship, complete with border skirmishes and pitched ideological competition. As the Trump administration moves to ramp up its pressure on the Islamic Republic, however, Iran's ayatollahs are toeing a softer line toward their eastern neighbor. Last month, in the first diplomatic engagement between the two countries since 2017, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi visited Kabul to meet with Taliban leaders and discuss Iran-Afghanistan relations. During the discussions, Araghchi emphasized his government's commitment to solving the persistent border tensions between the two by returning over 3 million Afghani refugees. He also emphasized that Tehran has no plans to meddle in Afghanistan's internal affairs. Araghchi's talks touched on another sensitive issue as well: resource rights. In the past, Afghanistan and Iran have nearly come to open blows over access to the Helmand River. But Araghchi emphasized that his government was committed to the full implementation of the Helmand River water treaty, which creates shared water resources between the two nations.
As significant as Araghchi's trip was, it stopped short of a state visit. Tehran does not as yet formally recognize the Taliban government. Nevertheless, as Araghchi's visit – and the concessions proffered by him – eloquently demonstrated, the Iranian regime is eager to build political and economic ties with Kabul, including allowing the Taliban to manage the Afghan embassy in Iran. (Associated Press, January 26, 2025)
THE BIRTH OF SYRIA'S MORALITY POLICE
Following the December ouster of Bashar al-Assad by opposition forces headed by one-time al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), international hopes have run high that Syria's Islamists might turn over a more pragmatic leaf. That, however, isn't necessarily a given, because – in tandem with a more soft-spoken diplomatic stance and outreach to assorted world capitals – HTS is also working to solidify its grip on power in Syria through religion. To that end, Syria's new government is reportedly in the process of training a new police force tasked with instilling conformity with sharia law.
The development is a cause for consternation among both international observers and Syrian citizens alike. "There are many Syrians who will find this concerning," confirms Aron Lund of Century International. "Not just minorities - Christians, Alawites, Druze - but also quite a lot of Sunni Muslims in places like Damascus and Aleppo, where you have a fairly large secular, cosmopolitan population that's not interested in religious law." (Reuters, January 23, 2025)
TURKEY, EUROPE AND SYRIAN JIHADISM
Meanwhile, Syrian Islamist fighters active in Africa are said to be heading north, to Europe. A recent study presented to the UN Security Council details that a number of Syrian jihadists "deployed to Libya by Turkey have moved to Europe and other regions offering greater benefits," the Nordic Monitor reports. UN investigators reportedly "identified at least 13 cases of Syrian fighters transferred to Italy, apparently with the assistance of Libyan military authorities who used migrant smuggling networks in Tripoli."
The pattern is part of a larger Islamist mobilization – one orchestrated by Ankara. "Turkey's Islamist government, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has transported thousands of Syrian jihadist fighters to Libya to bolster Turkey-backed factions," the Monitor reports. "Turkey provides Syrian mercenaries with monthly salaries, logistical support and the promise of Turkish citizenship for both the fighters and their families." (Nordic Monitor, February 10, 2025)
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