THE TALIBAN COMES IN FROM THE COLD... AT LEAST IN MOSCOW
For months now, the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin has been softening its stance toward Afghanistan's ruling Taliban movement, citing the potential for cooperation against the Islamic State terrorist group. Now, that process has reached its apex, with the Kremlin formally recognizing Afghanistan's Taliban government in early July. Russia's ambassador to Afghanistan, Dmitry Zhirnov, said that President Putin made the decision following a proposal from Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The move, Zhirnov said, "demonstrates Russia's sincere intention to establish a full-fledged partnership with Afghanistan." (Meduza, July 4, 2025)
HAMAS ON THE OUTS?
After nearly two years, Israel's military offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip has succeeded in degrading the Palestinian Islamist movement substantially. Precisely how much, however, isn't readily apparent. Now, a former Hamas commander has suggested that the group – which precipitated the current war with its terror campaign of Oct. 7, 2023 – is in terminal decline. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the former high-ranking militant has told the BBC that the group has lost control over 80% of Gaza. The resulting void, he suggested, is now being filled by various armed groups and local militias.
In voice messages to the news service, the former Hamas commander indicated that "about 95%" of the group's leadership has been killed as a result of the conflict, and "barely anything is left" of its security structure. Six armed groups have risen to fill the resulting void. The leader of one such group, Yasser Abu Shabab, has gained particular notoriety as a potential alternative to Hamas rule. Abu Shabab is reportedly working with other armed groups to form a joint council aimed at toppling Hamas. (BBC, July 6, 2025)
THE ISLAMIST THREAT GROWS IN AFRICA...
A recent UN report has detailed the growing threat posed by Islamist groups, including al-Qaeda, ISIS and their affiliates, to Africa. The expert report, which was provided to the UN Security Council last month, detailed how both Al-Shabab in East Africa and JNIM in West Africa have increased the territory under their control. Islamist activity has shifted toward Africa due to growing counterterrorism pressure in the Middle East, it notes.
JNIM, for instance, has expanded its operations throughout northern Mali and most of Burkina Faso "with relative ease," according to the report. It has also demonstrated growing technological sophistication. "JNIM reached a new level of operational capability to conduct complex attacks with drones, improvised explosive devices and large numbers of fighters against well-defended barracks," it details.
Meanwhile, "al-Shabab maintained its resilience, intensifying operations in southern and central Somalia," the report notes. It is also increasingly linking up with Yemen's Houthi rebels, creating extremist connections across the Red Sea. The two Islamist groups have reportedly engaged in weapons swaps and al-Shabab fighters have received training from Houthi militants. (Associated Press, July 30, 2025)
...AND SYRIA
Syria is also re-emerging as a potential hotbed of Islamist activity, six months after the fall of the Assad regime. The study notes that the country is now "in a volatile and precarious phase," as a result of several trends. One is the ongoing presence of thousands of foreign fighters who helped oust the old regime in Damascus. "The ideological affiliation of many of these individuals was unknown, although several were likely to hold violent extremist views and external ambitions," the report warns. At the same time, both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are exhibiting a growing presence in the country.
Those factors represent a challenge for Syria's new political order. The country's new president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, himself the leader of former al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, has pledged to forge an inclusive government. It is unclear, however, whether he has the power to do so, given the Islamist forces arrayed against his success. (Associated Press, July 30, 2025)
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