South Asia Strategy Monitor No. 25

CONNECTIVITY COMES TO KASHMIR
Last month, India finished a long-awaited $4.4 billion, 170-mile railway project connecting the region of Kashmir with the rest of the country. Also known as the Udhampur-Srinagar-Baramulla rail link, the project has been in the works since the mid-1990s, requiring innovative engineering to build the highest rail bridge over the Chenab River and cut through the western Himalayan Mountain range. Completion faced repeated delays, most notably in April, when terrorists attacked the Indian-administered part of the region, sparking the most recent India-Pakistan conflict.

But while Delhi aims to improve connectivity and economic growth in Kashmir, many locals worry the project contributes to the Indian government's efforts to assert control over the territory. There are also concerns regarding the construction quality and increased security checkpoints, which could deter travelers. The deadly conflict in May, and the ongoing dispute over Kashmir between India and Pakistan, highlights the political fragility of the region – something the new railway could further exacerbate. (New York Times, June 6, 2025)

BANGLADESH LOOKS AHEAD TO NATIONAL ELECTIONS
Last month, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif made a significant effort to increase investment and expand his country's diplomatic reach via a tour of Central Asia and the Middle East. The effort seems to have paid dividends; in early February, Pakistan and Turkey agreed to increase cooperation in the defense, mining, and economic sectors during a summit between Sharif and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Most notably, Islamabad and Ankara upgraded their existing Preferential Trade Agreement, with the aim of tripling trade as well as creating a special economic zone in Pakistan for industrial production.

On June 6th, Bangladesh's interim leader announce that the country will hold elections in April of 2026. Muhammad Yunus took the reins of power in Dhaka in August 2024, after a student-led uprising overthrew the previous Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina. Since then, his interim government has delayed elections – originally supposed to take place within 90 days of the transition – and cracked down on opposition parties. With Hasina's Awami League party now banned from participating in national politics, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which represents a less India-centric foreign policy approach, hopes to form the next government. But the BNP has repeatedly called for elections to be moved up early to December instead, due to challenges with campaigning during the religious month of Ramadan, as well as worries over the feasibility of passing the annual budget by June. (Associated Press, June 6, 2025)

CHINESE-BACKED MILITIA SECURES CONTROL OF MINES IN MYANMAR
A Chinese-backed militia, the United Wa State Arm (UWSA), has recently been seen protecting and operating new rare-earth mines in eastern Myanmar. Beijing is heavily reliant on Myanmar for rare earth minerals, which make up nearly half of the imports China uses to power critical technology. However, Beijing has recently faced difficulties accessing freshly-mined minerals in northern Myanmar due to increased fighting between Myanmar's ruling military junta and ethnic rebel groups as part of the civil war that erupted in 2021. Now, facing a trade war with the U.S. and depleted access to minerals, these new extraction sites could give China further economic leverage. (Reuters, June 12, 2025; Associated Press, June 27, 2025)

[EDITOR'S NOTE: The geopolitical importance of China's control of critical minerals should not be understated. Beijing dominates the global market on processing rare-earth minerals into magnets, which are essential for a range of technologies, from clean energy to aerospace to semiconductor manufacturing. China recently leveraged its dominance by limiting exports of rare-earth minerals to the United States amid growing trade tensions with Washington. Although a preliminary deal to resume the flow of minerals has been struck, tensions – and worries over China’s market dominance – persist.]

IN ISLAMABAD, FEARS OF IRANIAN INSTABILITY
The recent war between Iran and Israel has heightened worries among Pakistani officials that separatist and jihadist militants along the 560-mile-long Pakistani-Iranian border could take advantage of the resulting instability. Islamabad already struggles with unstable borders with both Afghanistan and India, as well as separatist militants within its own Balochistan province. Israel's targeting of Iranian nuclear sites has also generated concerns for Pakistan, which maintains its own nuclear arsenal, regarding the precedent these strikes may set for conflicts involving nuclear-armed nations. (Reuters, June 19, 2025)