Information Warfare Watch No. 43

HOW RUSSIA IS BOOSTING GERMANY'S AFD
German elections are slated to take place this month, and Russia has a clear political preference. A new investigation by German think tank CeMAS has uncovered a significant disinformation campaign linked to Russia – one designed to bolster the country's far right. The campaign, dubbed Doppelganger, has entailed hundreds of German-language social media posts targeting major German political parties while bolstering support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. The operation originated following the invasion of Ukraine and has aimed to undermine Western support for Kyiv, although the Kremlin has officially denied any involvement. (Reuters, January 20, 2025)

INDIA SEEKS TO REGULATE SOCIAL MEDIA...
The government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is mulling new regulations to limit children's access to social media in an effort to protect them from cyberbullying and inappropriate content. One proposal suggests requiring parental consent for any accounts opened by individuals under 18, with verification processes that could involve cross-checking reliable identity and age information already available on the platforms, or utilizing government-approved identification documents voluntarily provided by users. While supporters argue that requiring parental consent for account creation will enhance safety, critics warn that it could lead to invasive surveillance and misuse of personal data. The Internet Freedom Foundation (IFF) cautions that this process may eventually require all users to link their accounts to government IDs. These developments, however, mirror similar movements in other countries, as governments grapple with the negative effects of social media content. (Anadolu Agensi, January 14, 2025)

...WHILE ISLAMABAD ADOPTS A SCORCHED-EARTH STRATEGY
Like its regional rival, India, Pakistan is seeking to tighten its grip on the digital sphere. But unlike New Delhi, Islamabad is taking a more direct – and invasive – approach. The lower house of the country's parliament recently passed a new law that provides the government of Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif with sweeping powers to police online content. Under the law, social media companies will be required to register with a government-controlled oversight body with the power to immediately ban content they deem "unlawful and offensive." Under the new measure, disinformation is made a criminal offense, with its spread punishable by a fine of more than $7,000 and up to three years behind bars.

The measure has raised concerns among rights activists and political opponents alike. The new law has the potential to "lay a foundation for the suppression of voices advocating for constitutional rights," Omar Ayub Khan, a former Federal Minister for Economic Affairs who now serves as the Leader of the Opposition, has charged. Simultaneously, it possesses the power to "suppress the media, social media and journalists," the country's Federal Union of Journalists has warned. (Times of India, January 23, 2025)

POLAND NEEDS TO UP ITS COUNTER-DISINFORMATION GAME
Poland is poorly prepared to counter the extensive information warfare emanating from Belarus and Russia, a Polish government panel has assessed. A new report from the country's standing Commission for the Study of Russian and Belarusian Influence notes that the Kremlin has stepped up its disinformation efforts in recent years, with the objective of attaining "informational dominance" by manipulating public discourse and digital networks in Central and Eastern Europe. Moreover, according to the study, Russia – despite the financial burden of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the fiscal strain of Western sanctions – is still spending some $2 billion annually on propaganda and disinformation.

Poland's response, meanwhile, has lagged. The study notes that Warsaw's counter-disinformation efforts remain "insufficient, ad hoc, inconsistent, and often superficial," without an undergirding long-term strategy and a lack of coordination among relevant government institutions. "The main conclusion of the report is that Poland still needs to do more, both institutionally and practically, to counteract Russian and Belarusian disinformation as well as other emerging threats in the information space," Gen. Jarosław Stróżyk, the head of Poland's Military Counterintelligence Service, has laid out. (Polskie Radio, January 10, 2025)

A TECH BREAKTHROUGH IN TARGETING DISINFORMATION
The fight against "fake news" could soon get a much-needed assist – from artificial intelligence. A new tool developed by researchers at Keele University has drawn plaudits for its potential application as a detector of fake news stories and narratives. The software serves as an aggregator, using an "ensemble voting" technique to assemble the predictions of multiple machine learning models about the trustworthiness of a given news source. The end result is a mechanism capable of identifying fake news with 99% accuracy.

"In our constantly evolving digital communication landscape, the widespread dissemination of false information is a significant concern. It compromises the integrity of public discourse and has the potential to threaten both local and national security via influencing biased mindsets, views, and actions," explains Keele lecturer Uchenna Ani. "The risk posed by misinformation, disinformation, or fake news to the credibility of online news platforms, particularly on social media, highlights the urgent need for innovative solutions. We aim to enhance the capabilities of our AI solution through further research to help nip this problem in the bud." (TechXplore, January 15, 2025)