Russia Policy Monitor No. 2666

THE KREMLIN'S WAR ON EVERYONE
As the war in Ukraine nears its third anniversary, Russia's government is clamping down on a broad range of groups it perceives as threats (actual and potential) to its authority. "The FSB has designated 172 ethnic and religious groups associated with the Forum of Free States of PostRussia [as] 'terrorist organizations' because that group has called for its followers to work for the decolonization of Russia and to take part in defending Ukraine against Russian aggression," writes Russia expert Paul Goble in his Window on Eurasia blog. "Among those so described are Asians of Russia, Free Buryatia, Free Yakutiya, New Tyva, the League of Free Nations, the Association of Indigenous Peoples of the Russian Federation, Free Idel-Ural, Free Bashkortostan, the Congress of Peoples of the North Caucasus, the All-Tatar Social Center, and the Karelian National Movement." (Window on Eurasia, January 11, 2025)

AN UNEXPECTED SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS CRISIS EMERGES...
Following the expiry of Russia's gas transit deal with Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary, and Moldova have all experienced hikes in domestic energy prices. Moldova's breakaway region of Trans-Dniester has been particularly hard-hit, experiencing a full blown energy crisis complete with rolling blackouts. To address the energy shortage, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has declared that his government is prepared to transport natural gas from Azerbaijan to Europe. The South Caucasus state has significant gas export capacity, and Ukraine's existing gas transit infrastructure could be used for to bring energy to the continent. The proposal, however, comes with caveats; Zelensky has made clear that no Russian gas would be permitted to be transported through Azerbaijan under the arrangement. (Caspian News, January 30, 2025)

...WHILE THE BALTICS LOOK WEST FOR ENERGY
On February 8, all three Baltic nations – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – disconnected from the Russian power grid, severing their last remaining link to Moscow. In place of the now-defunct grid, the Baltic countries will join the Continental Europe grid in coming days. The moment is fraught with political significance, marking the culmination of a trend away from energy dependence on Moscow that accelerated after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. As part of that process, around $1.65 billion has been invested to date in integrating the Baltic countries and Poland with the rest of Europe.

Regional officials are celebrating the change. "We've reached the goal we for strived for, for so long. We are now in control," Lithuanian Energy Minister Zygimantas Vaiciunas has told reporters. "We will never use it again. We are moving on," Latvian Energy Minister Kaspars Melnis has confirmed. (RFE/RL, February 8, 2025)

MOSCOW'S CHALLENGES – AND ITS PLAN TO OVERCOME THEM
Russian authorities are quietly worried that, as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Kremlin's ties to countries in the "post-Soviet space" have suffered, while its efforts to advance economically in the "Global South" remain stunted. An internal policy document prepared last year and subsequently shared with high-ranking officials and top government-aligned corporate bosses reportedly highlights the challenges now faced by the government of President Vladimir Putin – and outlines how it seeks to respond. "Moscow's ambition," The Financial Times details, "is to restore its access to global trade by putting Russia at the centre of a Eurasian trade bloc that would aim to rival the US, EU, and China's spheres of economic influence." (The Financial Times, February 10, 2025)

DENMARK WARNS, NATO WEAKNESS IS PROVOCATIVE
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) has warned that Russia could be prepared to wage a "large-scale" war in Europe in the next five years if Moscow regards NATO as weak or politically divided. "This is particularly true if Russia assesses that the U.S. cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a war with Russia," the DDIS report warns, highlighting Russia's efforts to increase its military capabilities in preparation for such a hypothetical conflict. President Trump has pushed for NATO members to hike defense spending to five percent of GDP, signaling the potential for a U.S. withdrawal from the Alliance if bloc members do not increase their defense expenditures.

The DDIS anticipates that, if the Ukraine conflict ends or becomes frozen, Russia would again be capable of waging a local war with a neighboring country within as little as six months. And within two years, the intelligence agency projects, it would be prepared to wage a regional war in the Baltic Sea region. Within five years, Russia could have the capacity for a large-scale attack against Europe. Notably, the DDIS did not take a potential strengthening of NATO defense capabilities into account in making its projections. (Politico, February 11, 2025)