Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 132

FIELD OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES TAKES SHAPE...
With Iran’s presidential election now less than three months away, the field of candidates vying to replace the outgoing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is steadily growing. In mid-February, one of Iran’s most feared establishment figures, former Intelligence Minister Ali Fallahian, officially threw his hat into the presidential ring. Fallahian, who is still wanted by Interpol for his alleged participation in the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires, Argentina, said his campaign would be built around the concept of Iran as an “advanced Islamic country.” Fallahian, however, faces a growing list of competitors. In early March, Mohsen Rezaie, a former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, announced that he was running as well, focusing on a platform of “economic development.” And Ali Larijani, currently speaker of the Iranian parliament, or majles, has made noises about a presidential bid, too—although a recent public spat with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may derail his chances at higher office. Signaling their interest as well are two former Foreign Ministers, Ali Akbar Velayati (who served as Iran’s top diplomat from 1981 to 1997) and Manoucher Mottaki (who held the post from 2005 to 2010). (Radio Free Europe, February 20, 2013; Baltimore Sun, March 4, 2013; Bloomberg, March 26, 2013)

...AS REGIME STACKS THE ELECTORAL DECK
Authorities in Tehran, meanwhile, are working to shape the electoral environment ahead of what promises to be an acrimonious voting process. In mid-February, the country’s Interior Ministry announced plans for the creation of a the special unit of “voluntary police” that will be tasked with providing security for the elections, as well as for ensuring “high public participation” in them. The new force is intended to help the regime combat any problem that it may face in the run-up to the polls, which authorities term a time of possible “sedition.” Since then, the Iranian regime has also stepped up its monitoring and control of the World-Wide Web, and in mid-March the Iranian government blocked most of the virtual private networks (VPNs) used by Iranians to circumvent the government's Internet filters. (Tehran Rooz, February 19, 2013; Reuters, March 10, 2013)

NUCLEAR COLLUSION WITH NORTH KOREA...
North Korea’s mid-February nuclear test, it turns out, had some unusual spectators: a delegation of Iranian scientists who had offered to pay tens of millions of dollars to the DPRK for permission to witness the test. The idea reportedly had been suggested at a high level meeting between the two countries in November of last Fall, and payment for the ringside viewing authorized by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad himself. The transaction is said to have been facilitated by the Bank of Kunlun in Beijing. (Chosun Ilbo (Seoul), February 18, 2013)

...BUT DIMMING ECONOMIC PROSPECTS ELSEWHERE IN ASIA
The Asia-Pacific region, not long ago viewed by Iran as an economic lifeline in the face of mounting Western sanctions, is beginning to turn inhospitable for the Islamic Republic. In mid-March, India—the second largest purchaser of Iranian crude—announced that it plans to cease importing Iranian oil in April, over fears that a failure to do so will result in a loss of insurance coverage for its refineries. Japan and South Korea are also set to shrink their imports of oil from Iran beginning next month.

Iran’s trade with its chief Asian partner, China, likewise has taken a hit—at least for the moment. According to Assadollah Asgaroladi, the head of the Iran-China Chamber of Commerce, bilateral trade between the Islamic Republic and the PRC decreased by nearly 10 percent last year, falling to $37 billion. However, Iran has focused on Beijing as a key economic ally, and is working to reverse the trend. According to Asgaroladi, bilateral trade is expected to reach $50 billion in 2014 and 2015. (Tehran IRNA, March 12, 2013; Financial Times, March 18, 2013)

CHINESE ARMS TO IRANIAN PROXIES
China, however, is helping the Iranian regime on other fronts. In early March, news broke that an Iranian vessel captured off the coast of Yemen earlier this year had been carrying sophisticated Chinese-origin weaponry that the Iranian regime was attempting to supply to Shi’a insurgents in the southern Gulf state. Among the arms captured in the raid were 10 Chinese heat-seeking antiaircraft missiles produced by the state-owned China National Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation, as well as nearly 100 rocket-propelled grenade launchers and hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition for automatic machine guns and small arms. The weapons, U.S. and Yemeni authorities say, were intended for the Houthis, a rebel group in Yemen’s northwest which has waged an insurgency against the Yemeni state since 2004. (New York Times, March 2, 2013)