South Asia Security Monitor: No. 316

NUCLEAR STATES DIVIDED ON INDIA JOINING NSG
Despite support from the United States, Russia, and several other powers, it does not appear the international nuclear regulatory body known as the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) will extend India an invitation. At an informal meeting the group was unable to reach consensus on India’s accession as China, Ireland, and the Netherlands raised concerns, stressing the need for equal treatment for both Pakistan and India. Both countries have refused to sign the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Other experts expressed concern that the admission of non-NPT signatories to the NSG could weaken the integrity of the group and possibly undermine pre-existing export controls. The issue of India’s accession is likely to be postponed until a formal meeting of the NSG scheduled for June. (Reuters, March 20, 2013)

MUSHARRAF RETURNS TO PAKISTAN
Former Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf has ended his self-imposed exile and returned to Pakistan amidst death threats from militant groups and under threat of several judicial investigations. The former general remains a divisive figure in Pakistan and his political constituency has shrunk considerably since popular protests forced him from power in 2008 after he attempted to sack the Chief Justice of the Pakistani Supreme Court. Musharraf has spent the last 4 years in exile in Dubai and it is unclear what level of support his party, the All Pakistan Muslim League, will garner in national polls scheduled for May. (The Guardian, March 24, 2013)

CHINA CONFIRMS NEW NUCLEAR DEAL WITH PAKISTAN
The spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry has tacitly confirmed reports of an agreement between China and Pakistan to build a 1000 MW nuclear reactor in Pakistan’s Punjab province. Responding to a question about reports of a secret nuclear deal between the two countries, the spokesperson defended bilateral nuclear cooperation with Pakistan, arguing that it was for peaceful purposes and in accordance with China’s commitments to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). China maintains that the new reactor, Chashma V, was “grandfathered” in when China joined the NSG in 2004. It made the same case for two other Pakistani nuclear reactors, Chashma III and Chashma IV, when they were announced in 2010. However, U.S. officials and nonproliferation experts have insisted that no mention of any grandfathered reactors was made at the time China joined the NSG and that China must seek a waiver to proceed with the deal. The United States reached a similar civil nuclear deal with India in 2008, but only after obtaining the necessary exemption from the NSG. (Washington Times, March 26, 2013; Economic Times, March 25, 2013)

INDIA, U.S. EXPAND SPACE COOPERATION
An agreement signed last week between the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) and NASA will vastly expand cooperation between the two countries in civil space operations. According to a joint statement celebrating the announcement, future joint projects will include a multitude of goals, from monsoon prediction to possible missions to the Moon or Mars. Commenting on the agreement, Indian Ambassador to the U.S. Nirupama Rao said “there is no final frontier in this relationship.” (India Today, March 23, 2013)

PAKISTANI MILITARY MAY TARGET TTP IN TIRAH VALLEY
The Pakistani military may be gearing up for an offensive against elements of the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) who have established a base of operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Tirah Valley. The valley’s proximity to both NATO supply lines and the northwestern city of Peshawar makes it’s a prime target for militants and a security priority for the government. (The Express Tribune, March 21, 2013)