Iran Democracy Monitor No. 246

IRAN'S LEADERS WORK TO COOPT PERSIAN CULTURE
This summer's conflict with Israel left the Iranian regime bloodied and with its domestic credibility battered. In its aftermath, authorities are taking a new political tack – by prioritizing nationalist rhetoric and iconography at home. The Financial Times reports that, since this summer, Iran's regime has permitted street music festivals, taken a more lax attitude toward public instances of singing and dancing, and assisted in the promotion of Persian culture and symbols - something it had previously opposed.

The move is calculated. "The Islamic republic's recent embrace of nationalism is welcome, but I fear it could be just a tactic," one shopkeeper commented to the Times. "This regime has never compromised its ideology. It shifts tactics..." (Financial Times, September 20, 2025)

IRAN'S REGIME PRIORITIZES POWER...
In the wake of its "twelve-day war" with Israel, Iranian officials have focused on consolidating domestic control. Regime crackdowns have targeted minority groups, journalists, and human rights defenders, to massive effect. Over 20,000 people are estimated to have been arrested since the June conflict. Official repression has not stopped there, however. "Since June, the human rights situation in Iran has spiraled deeper into crisis with Iranian authorities scapegoating and targeting dissidents and minorities for a conflict they had nothing to do with," officials from human rights watchdog Amnesty International have said, characterizing the resulting situation as a "looming human rights catastrophe." (Amnesty International, September 3, 2025)

...AND ELIMINATING OPPONENTS
Predictably, the regime's latest crackdown has been accompanied a massive spike in executions. Since the start of 2025, there have been over 1,000 people put to death in Iran – the highest figure in at least 15 years. Moreover, regime authorities have laid the basis for expanded official killings. In the aftermath of the June conflict, the Guardian Council, a clerical oversight body, approved harsher sentences for those found guilty of espionage and collaboration with Israel. Meanwhile, the death penalty remains ubiquitous for those convicted of drug related offenses. The cumulative results have been devastating. The UN has estimated "an average of more than nine hangings per day" in recent weeks, resulting in executions "on an industrial scale." (Radio Farda, October 1, 2025)

BORDER SECURITY, IRANIAN STYLE
Amid ongoing tensions with neighboring Afghanistan, the Islamic Republic is strengthening border security. In mid-September, Eskandar Momeni, Iran's Interior Minister, announced that his government would reinforce its eastern border with stepped-up electronic surveillance. "[P]hysical border closure alone is insufficient and requires electronic and radar systems," Momeni told the internal affairs committee of Iran's parliament, the majles. The decision comes following a number of skirmishes and other incidents in Iran's eastern Sistan and Baluchistan province, which borders both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The changes envisioned include the use of drones for border surveillance, as well as new border control techniques. (Iran Wire, September 11, 2025)

A GRIM ENERGY PICTURE
In spite of its inherent energy wealth, the Islamic Republic is heading toward a massive shortfall in power. Ali Rabiei, a senior advisor to Iranian president Massoud Pezeshkian, has told journalists that the country's natural gas deficit is poised to double in the next decade-and-a-half. "If the gas imbalance continues at this rate, by the year 2041 we will be facing a 512-million-cubic-meter shortfall," Rabiei said. "This figure is terrifying."

There are good reasons for concern. The majles' dedicated research center estimated recently that the country is currently experiencing a shortfall of 150 million cubic meters a day – a figure that is expected to rise to 250 million cubic meters in "peak winter." If the current trajectory continues, Iran will eventually find itself unable to meet some two-thirds of domestic demand. (Iran International, September 19, 2025)

[EDITORS' NOTE: The grim prognosis is a testament to the profound way in which Iran's clerical regime has mismanaged the country's natural resource wealth. Iran is known to possess 33 trillion cubic meters of proven natural gas reserves, second only to Russia.]