Russia Policy Monitor No. 2697

FEAR AND LOATHING IN VILNIUS
Lithuania is mobilizing its civilian defense in response to growing hybrid warfare on the part of Russia. The Baltic nation is reportedly establishing a network of schools intended to teach citizens how to assemble, program, and operate drones. The first of these nine special facilities, catering to both adults and children, has already opened as part of a broader initiative aimed at increasing overall military readiness. Like many of its Eastern and Central European neighbors, Lithuania has significantly increased defense investments in response to Russia's war in Ukraine and ongoing hybrid operations across Europe. The inclusion of youth in these programs also signals Vilnius' expectation that Russian aggression and the centrality of drone warfare are here to stay – necessitating the preparation of the country's next generation to face future security challenges. (Reuters, September 16, 2025)

ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER RUSSIAN SOFT POWER PLAY
After being excluded from the Eurovision Song Contest for years as a result of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia is ramping up a cultural alternative of its own. The Kremlin has revived "Intervision," a Soviet-era competition focused on "traditional values" and showcasing participants from partner nations such as Belarus, China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Russian officials have touted the competition as a celebration of conservative traditions and religiosity, which the Kremlin insists have been eroded by Western influence. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has argued that the initiative "allows Moscow to position itself as a cultural leader for an alternative bloc" spanning former Soviet republics and parts of the Global South. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, September 18, 2025)

MOLDOVA SIDES WITH EUROPE
Despite widespread reports of Russian interference and worries that hybrid tactics would deliver a win for the pro-Kremlin Patriotic Electoral Bloc, Moldova's pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) secured a decisive electoral victory in the country's recent parliamentary election. PAS will now hold 54 of 101 parliamentary seats, with the Patriotic Bloc holding just 26. The electoral results represent a victory for sitting President Maia Sandu, as well as a broader triumph for European democracy in the face of Russian pressure – one that keeps the country on a path to EU membership and out of Moscow's orbit, despite the Kremlin's best efforts. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, September 29, 2025)

RUSSIA'S AFRICAN FOOTPRINT FALTERS
Russia's military influence in Africa is rapidly diminishing as its state-run Africa Corps fails to match the power, profits, and reach of the now-defunct Wagner Group. After Wagner's founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, led an abortive coup against Moscow and subsequently died in a plane crash in 2023, many of the group's ventures unraveled. African partners such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, which had accepted military aid from Russia to counter local insurgency and Islamic extremism, now face "buyer's remorse" as Moscow is unable to continue to effectively respond to those threats. The Africa Corps has faced battlefield setbacks which have, among other things, forced the group to abandon strategic objectives such as valuable mines in Sudan. In turn, these tactical failures, combined with the group's brutal repression of local populations, have diminished the appeal of Russian military support. As a result, many states are turning back to the U.S., hoping to renew security partnerships and training initiatives with Washington. (Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2025)

KREMLIN SEEKS HIGHEST CONSCRIPTION TARGET IN NEARLY A DECADE
As the death toll of Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to mount, Moscow is readying the largest military draft in nearly a decade. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently ordered that 135,000 additional personnel be incorporated into the Russian military by the end of 2025, part of his overall plan to expand the country's armed forces to 1.5 million active soldiers by next year. This large draft breaks from a tradition of lower draft quotas in the Fall and higher in Spring, as young men graduate from high school or university. Notably, these conscripts will not officially be required to fight outside the country. Nonetheless, the Ukrainian military has repeatedly claimed that they have captured conscripts on the frontlines in Ukraine, signaling that the Kremlin has flouted this regulation. (The Moscow Times, September 29, 2025)

EUROPE EYES RUSSIA'S FROZEN ASSETS ANEW
The Trump administration's position on Ukraine appears to be shifting, but its commitment to funding the country's defense remains uncertain. As a result, the EU is searching for alternative ways to continue to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. One such proposal involves seized Russian assets for a "reparations loan," to be repaid only after Russia covers war damages. Currently, around 176 billion Euros of confiscated Russian assets are held in Belgian clearinghouse Euroclear. The plan being contemplated by European officials involves creating a "Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV)" to house those funds, which would then be transferred to Ukraine in zero-coupon bonds, guaranteed by a group of willing countries, over the course of 2026 and 2027. The proposal would allow Europe to continue to support Ukraine financially even absent the backing of countries like Hungary and Slovakia, who have been reluctant to provide significant financial and military support to Ukraine. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, September 30, 2025)