Iran Democracy Monitor No. 247

IRAN'S NEW BARGAIN WITH CHINA: OIL FOR ARMS
This summer's 12-day war with Israel has left Iran weakened both politically and strategically. Recent weeks have therefore seen the Islamic Republic attempt to improve its regional position by reconstituting its defense capabilities and strengthening its foreign partnerships. The reimposition, this Fall, of UN sanctions on Iran has further complicated Iran's economic prospects.

Here, however, China is playing a key role. Chinese companies are now being engaged by Iran's General Staff and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps with a new proposition – to barter oil deliveries (both past and future) for weapons systems. Tehran's main Chinese partner in this regard is the Haokun Energy Group, which currently owes Iran $1 billion for oil transactions with IRGC-linked firms in the past several years. (Iran International, October 7, 2025)

NEW PREPARATIONS FOR WAR...
Iran is tightening its domestic grip, expanding its military capabilities, and cracking down on political opponents – steps that have led many to conclude that it is preparing for another confrontation with Israel. According to the Institute for the Study of War, a DC think tank, there is a widespread understanding within Iran that the current ceasefire with Israel will not hold for long, and that another round of fighting will eventually ensue. More signs that Iran is preparing for another war have been reported by Iranian Kurdish opposition leaders, who say that the IRGC has been transferring "unprecedented" amounts of missiles, drones, and heavily armed forces to northern and western Iran. These elements also have confirmed that the regime has moved large quantities of ballistic missiles, deployed mobile launchers, and is conducting daily military drills. Satellite images likewise show that Iran has continued construction on an underground military complex near the Natanz nuclear facility, which was struck by the U.S. during the recent Israel-Iran war. (Alhurra, October 9, 2025)

...AND PLANS TO MILITARIZE THE CASPIAN
Earlier this month, the commander of the Iranian Navy, Adm. Shahram Irani, announced that the Islamic Republic is planning a joint military exercise in the Caspian Sea with fellow littoral states Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan. The announcement follows a large-scale military drill in the Gulf of Oman and another in the northern Indian Ocean in August. The drills are being viewed as an effort by Iran to consolidate its regional standing – and to prevent foreign interference there. "The Caspian Sea belongs only to its five coastal states – Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan – and they will resolve related issues themselves," Irani detailed in explaining the rationale for the drills. (Iran International, October 7, 2025)

EXECUTIONS REACH NEW HIGH...
The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has reported that 1,537 people were hanged in Iran between October 2024 and October 2025, the highest figure in a decade and an 86% increase over last year. Moreover, HRANA says, 94% of these executions were carried out in secret, showcasing a desire by regime officials to conceal and restrict the collection of data on these executions. HRANA has called on the United Nations and foreign governments to take action to address the amount of executions taking place in Iran. (Iran International, October 10, 2025)

...AS LEGAL PENALTIES EXPAND
Meanwhile, an expansive espionage law just passed by Iran's parliament, the majles, is expected to increase the execution rate still further. Under the new legislation, the death penalty now applies to anyone involved in manufacturing, assembling, supplying, transferring, carrying, storing, or importing various items, or conducting activities, related to espionage or adjacent actions – including possessing or distributing small drones or quadcopters with potential military, espionage, or disruptive applications. It is also a capital offense under the new law to receive "money or property such as real estate, vehicles, gold, currency, and any type of encrypted assets from spies or affiliates or intelligence services," if the recipient is aware of the affiliation. Cyber attacks or disruptive communication networks and information systems, even if used against private facilities, would also fall under the death penalty, in addition to the distribution of Starlink and satellite internet equipment "with the intent to oppose the system or espionage" or if the perpetrator is deemed an "enemy force."

Using, carrying, storing, buying, or selling unlicensed satellite internet equipment like Starlink for personal use is not a capital offense but can send citizens to prison under the new law. Other offenses that can result in prison time under the law include sending films or images to foreign networks, media, or social media pages with information that is deemed against national security interests, as well as participating in "illegal marches and gatherings." (Iran Wire, October 17, 2025)