Russia Policy Monitor No. 2699

GROWING RUSSIAN MILITARY DESERTION
Since the start of the Kremlin's war on Ukraine, Russia has suffered from chronic manpower shortages in its military, forcing it to rely on local conscripts and contract soldiers – as well as infusions of troops from allies like North Korea. But troop retention is getting harder for the Russian government. As casualties continue to mount in Ukraine, growing numbers of Russian soldiers are deserting, choosing to face prison time instead of the front line. Leaked Russian Defense Ministry documents confirm that last year saw at least 50,000 desertions. Today, that number is likely higher – reflected in a surge in the number of court cases that have been brought against deserters in recent months. Most deserters, however, never make it to trial. Soldiers are often simply returned to their units after their first offense. Prosecution appears to be reserved solely for repeat cases, suggesting that the scale of desertion has made it simply impossible to punish each offender.

These soldiers desert for a variety of reasons, most of them not ideological in nature. Rather, they leave their units to take care of family, seek medical care, or simply avoid being treated as "cannon fodder" at the front. Although these individuals are not necessarily anti-war activists, the Russian state's inability to care for servicemen and their families, together with growing fear and exhaustion, highlights the disillusionment that now permeates segments of the Russian military. (Meduza, October 8, 2025)

A PIVOT AWAY FROM THE MEDITERRANEAN
The Ukraine war is taking a toll on more than Russia's military forces. Increasingly, it is impacting the Kremlin's global posture as well. According to NATO officials, Russia has drawn down its naval presence in the Mediterranean, shifting its focus to the Baltic and Arctic regions as its confrontation with Europe intensifies. The retraction follows the new Syrian government's decision to terminate a Soviet-era agreement providing Russia with access to its port at Tartus – a crucial facility that has enabled the Russian Navy to refuel and repair ships, as well as to maintain the ability to project force into the region. Without it, the Russian navy faces higher costs and greater logistical challenges in sustaining Mediterranean operations.

At the same time, an expanded NATO presence in northern waters has spurred Russia's redeployment. The Alliance launched its "Baltic Sentry" mission the same month Russia lost access to Tartus, with the aim of protecting critical underwater infrastructure and enhance surveillance capability. Russia has sought to match this increased presence, expanding naval deployments to protect its interests in the north. However, experts note, the Russian Baltic Fleet remains significantly smaller and less capable than NATO's forces in the region. (Defense News, October 10, 2025)

A MOUNTING FUEL CRISIS
Successful Ukrainian strikes deep into Russian territory targeting oil depots and refineries have significantly constrained Russia's ability to fuel its military. Ukrainian intelligence sources estimate that Russia now has roughly 20% less fuel than it requires, following a series of successful drone strikes on its energy infrastructure. The strikes have been so effective that oil-rich Russia is now reportedly turning to energy imports. Government and industry sources indicate that Russia has increased imports from Belarus and several Asian states, while simultaneously introducing fuel rationing, price freezes, and gas export restrictions at home. Energy infrastructure represents a key target for both sides. Russia continues to strike Ukraine's energy infrastructure, prompting Kyiv to seek a 30% increase in natural gas imports ahead of winter. (TVPWorld, October 9, 2025)

FREED UKRAINIANS RECOUNT RUSSIAN TORTURE
As some Ukrainian prisoners of war return home as a result of prisoner exchanges between Moscow and Kyiv, they are recounting the brutality they endured in Russian captivity. According to a UN report, 92% of 216 released prisoners recounted abuses, including beatings, electric shocks, the use of stress positions, ritual humiliation, and rape. Soldiers and civilians alike are subjected to these abuses, with prisoners from Ukraine's elite Azov Corps singled out for particularly severe torture. Labeled a "terrorist organization" by the Kremlin in 2022, Azov members are coerced into signing confessions or becoming informers in an echo of Soviet practices. (The Economist, October 9, 2025)