Iran Democracy Monitor No. 248

A NEW PUSH FOR "MORALITY"
As part of a reinvigorated crackdown, Iran is planning on training 80,000 volunteers to support the enforcement of hijab wearing and monitor public behavior in the country's capital and its wider province. The volunteers would fill the role of local observers to help promote social discipline and religious edicts, tracking Iranians not abiding by religious laws, such as wearing the mandatory hijab and monitoring online and streaming platforms. "The country's greatest asset is its faithful and revolutionary people," says Rouhollah Momen-Nasab, head of Tehran's headquarters for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice. "By activating 80,000 trained personnel, we can bring about major transformation in the province even before relying on large state budgets." (Iran International, October 17, 2025)

[EDITORS' NOTE: The new morality initiative represents something of a risky proposition for the Islamic Republic. Some 70% of Iranian men and women oppose mandatory veiling, making it a hot-button political issue. Regime officials have sought to shape perceptions surrounding the hijab by equating opposition to it to a "cognitive and cultural war" – presumably one that is being waged on the Iranian people by outside (Western) forces.]

DOMESTIC REPRESSION DEEPENS
Human rights conditions within the Islamic Republic have deteriorated markedly in recent months, drawing growing alarm from international observers. A new report by a UN fact-finding mission has warned of a "serious deterioration of the human rights situation in Iran" since the June war with Israel, as the Islamic Republic has carried out "a domestic crackdown that has further constricted civic space, undermined due process, and eroded respect for the right to life." The aftermath of the conflict included mass arrests of some 21,000 "suspects," among them "lawyers, journalists, human rights defenders, and people who expressed their views on the conflict on social media," the expert analysis noted. This has been mirrored by a recent surge in repression against "ethnic and religious minorities," including the arrests of hundreds of Kurds and large numbers of Arabs, as well as the deportations of thousands of Afghans.

Of particular concern has been the skyrocketing rate of executions in the country, which are now at their highest rate since 2015. Most death penalty cases the Fact-finding Mission looked into "appear to contravene international human rights law, thereby violating the right to life." "If executions form part of a widespread and systemic attack against a civilian population, as a matter of policy, then those responsible – including the judges who impose capital punishment – may be held accountable for crimes against humanity," one of the UN experts laid out. (UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, October 30, 2025)

IRAN EXPANDS MISSILE CAPABILITIES
When Israel decided to attack Iran this past summer, one of its primary targets was Iran's formidable arsenal of ballistic missiles – an arsenal that, Israeli officials said, was poised to grow exponentially as a result of investments on the part of the Iranian regime. Now, five months later, the Islamic Republic's missile capabilities are growing anew.

Iran's missile systems, the country's lawmakers have disclosed, are no longer bound by a prior range limit of 2,200-kilometers imposed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Regime officials have likewise indicated that they plan to "increase the range of its missiles to any necessary extent." Meanwhile, opposition elements say that Iran can do so rapidly – although it would still take the Islamic Republic years to reach true intercontinental range (Al Hurra, November 6, 2025)

IRANIAN INVESTORS EYE THE EXITS
Capital flight from Iran during the first quarter of the fiscal year totaled negative $9 billion, a record high. Iran International reports that, if Iranians continue to send cash out of the country at the current pace, outflows could reach $36 billion, or roughly 10% of Iran's GDP, by the same time next year. A report by Iran's Central Bank points to individuals with government links or ties to quasi-state institutions as the leading exporters of capital, totaling billions of dollars. The same report notes a drop in export revenues, with oil revenue down $3 billion and non-oil revenue down $1 billion. The massive deficit may continue to deepen; Iranian officials are warning of severe foreign-currency shortages and a growing inability by the Central Bank to finance imports or investment. (Iran International, November 8, 2025)