CHINA'S EVOLVING STRATEGIC ARSENAL
China continues to expand the number, sophistication and reach of its ballistic missiles, a new assessment from the Pentagon has assessed. "China is modernizing its longer-range ballistic missile force" and "introducing a new road-mobile, solid-propellant, intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM), the DF-31" that is capable of targeting "most of the world," according to the Defense Department's annual report to Congress on Chinese military power, released publicly on May 24th. Beijing is also increasing the "tempo" of its ballistic missile tests and "developing qualitative upgrades" to its anti-missile defense capabilities, the study says.
The implications of these upgrades are profound. "Analysis of PLA acquisitions... suggests China is generating military capabilities that would have utility beyond" a military conflict over Taiwan, the study says. Rather, China appears to be increasingly interested in acquiring the ability to project power beyond East Asia, and "the PLA's capability for limited and relatively precise uses of force is growing, expanding the military options available to PRC leaders."
TOKYO EYES NORTH KOREAN MISSILE MOVES
In what could be the prelude to a launch, North Korea has moved a "Taepo Dong-2" intercontinental ballistic missile to a military facility in the northeast of the Stalinist state. The information, gleaned from satellite surveillance photos, was disclosed to Japanese lawmakers by foreign minister Taro Aso on May 19th. But so far, officials say, there is no evidence that a North Korean ICBM test is imminent. "We understand that it has been brought to the site, but we are not sure about any subsequent moves," Aso said in comments carried by London's Independent (May 20). "We are collecting information."
ESCALATING MISSILE TENSIONS BETWEEN IRAN AND ISRAEL
The international stand-off over Iran's nuclear program just got a bit more tense. On May 23rd, just hours before meetings between President Bush and new Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in Washington, Iran carried out a public test of its "Shahab-3" medium-range missile. Tel Aviv's Yediot Ahronot (May 23) reports that the test was classified by the Iranian government a "partial success," although the exact nature of the complications is still unclear.
Israel, meanwhile, is accelerating its strategic response to Iran's nuclear advances. Officials in Jerusalem say that their government has stepped up its efforts to develop long-range cruise missiles suitable for striking the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities. "A top priority has been put on developing this technology, in light of the Iran situation, as well as improving the Arrow [theater missile defense system]," a top security source has confirmed.
DEFENDING EUROPE FROM IRAN...
In its May 22nd edition, the New York Times reports that with the issue of Iran's nuclear program deadlocked at the United Nations, the Bush administration is stepping up its efforts to create a European component to its ballistic missile defense system. The final location for the site is currently being debated, with Poland and the Czech Republic the most serious contenders. Planning for the potential site, however, has accelerated as the international crisis over Iran's nuclear ambitions has deepened. Under current projections, ten interceptors will be housed at the designated European location by the year 2011.
...CREATES RIPPLES IN RUSSIA
The new momentum driving European basing, however, is generating a backlash from the Kremlin. According to Moscow's top military officer, the effort to establish an interceptor site in Europe is a direct threat to Russia. "The very fact of the deployment of the first-line missile defenses in this region is unequivocally intended to neutralize Russia's strategic potential," RIA Novosti reported General Yuriy Baluyevsky, Chief of the Russian General Staff, as saying on May 24th. In response, Russia is developing "asymmetric solutions" that will give it the ability to "successfully penetrate both existing and nascent missile defense systems that are being developed today and will be developed tomorrow and in the more distant future," Baluyevsky has said in comments carried by MosNews the same day.
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