Missile Defense Briefing Report: No. 203

CHINA'S SPACE AMBITIONS
The People's Republic of China has made the development of advanced space-based technologies a major priority for its military. Citing the Pentagon's recently-released annual report to Congress on Chinese military power, space.com (June 6) reports that the Chinese government is taking advantage of double-digit GDP growth to dramatically upgrade its space capabilities on a number of fronts - from the manufacture of satellites to the development of booster technologies to new work on sophisticated space-based reconnaissance and tracking. These technologies will "serve as a key enabler for [China's] regional power projection," the Pentagon study notes. But perhaps most troubling, according to the Defense Department paper, are the PRC's active efforts to improve its anti-satellite weaponry, including experiments with non-conventional systems that utilize lasers or high-frequency radio to disable orbiting vehicles.

A NEW GENERATION OF ARROW TAKES OFF
Mounting worries of a confrontation with Iran are spurring Israeli officials to upgrade their country's missile defense capabilities. In its June 6th edition, Globes cites sources in Israel's Ministry of Defense as saying that plans are in the works for the development of a next-generation Israeli ballistic missile defense system. The system, known as the "Arrow Mark IV," is scheduled to enter service in 2009, and will enjoy substantial advantages over missile defenses currently deployed in Israel. These include superior interceptor missiles and an upgraded integration and coordination capability, as well as new radar technology that will enable the "Mark IV" to monitor a much larger geographical area than currently covered. As much as two-thirds of the missile defense upgrade, the paper reports, will be funded by the United States.

MISSILE JITTERS HIT CAPITOL HILL
London's Guardian newspaper (May 30) reports that the U.S. Defense Department's plans to use ballistic missiles armed with conventional warheads as part of the War on Terror has run into interference in Congress. In recent months, as part of the Global Strike program outlined in the 2001 Nuclear Posture Review, Pentagon planners have proposed the conversion of submarine-launched ballistic missiles into conventional stand-off weapons for use against terrorist and rogue state targets, and have asked legislators for some $127 million to fund the transformation next year. But lawmakers, leery that foreign nations might misinterpret the intent of any such launch, have so far failed to give the initiative full funding. "There is great concern this could be destabilizing in terms of deterrence and nuclear policy," says Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI). "It would be hard to determine if a missile coming out of a Trident submarine is conventional or nuclear."

Pentagon planners, however, are confident that the project is feasible, and that informal arrangements and notification mechanisms can be worked out with other nuclear powers. "It's a valid concern - you never want someone to think you're launching a nuke when you're not," says one specialist with the U.S. Strategic Command. "But I think it's a manageable problem, and a lot of others do too."

RUSSIA RAMPS UP WORK ON RADARS
Moscow, meanwhile, is making new efforts to upgrade its ability to detect hostile ballistic missiles. The Itar-TASS news agency (May 29) reports that preparations are underway in southern Russia for the construction and subsequent deployment of a new early warning radar array designed to allow the Russian military to more easily detect and intercept ballistic missile threats. "The new radar station is planned to be built near Armavir in 2007 and to go on duty two years after that," a spokesman for the Russian Space Troops has told reporters. "It is UHF and will be part of the National Missile Attack Alert System."

RUSSIA VERSUS AMERICAN SPACE STRATEGY
Observers are warning that American plans for the deployment of space-based defenses are creating a major strategic challenge for Russia. The expected release of a new space doctrine authorizing the deployment of space-based interceptors will force Russia to "create a new theater of war, resume an unprecedented arms race, and search for an 'adequate response,'" writes commentator Andrei Kislyakov in a June 12th analysis for RIA Novosti. That response, Kislyakov says, could include the reconstitution of a robust Russian anti-satellite effort, as well as an acceleration of the Russian government's work on intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of defeating American defenses.