Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1621

February 2:

As the global economic crisis begins to bite, Russia’s energy prospects are dimming. Interfax reports that the month of January saw Russia’s energy production decrease more than 11 percent from 2008 levels. According to the news agency, a new industry study puts Russia’s January 2009 oil production at some 41 million tons, down nearly one percent from the same period last year. Natural gas production, meanwhile, has experienced a much steeper decline; the study notes that gas production for the first month of 2009 stood at some 54.6 billion cubic meters – down 11.4 percent from January 2008 levels.

Energy production is not the only thing on the decline. The Belfast Telegraph reports that declining economic fortunes within Russia are eating into the Kremlin’s popularity. Recent days have seen a number of protests in numerous large cities throughout Russia, and while turnout at these events has generally been low – and the protests peaceful – there is reason to suspect greater instability ahead. “We're waiting for warmer weather because it's simply difficult to stay outside for long when it's minus 20,” one protester in Vladivostok tells the Telegraph. “But in the spring we plan to mount protests every weekend. Before I got involved I never realized how many people are unhappy.”


February 3:

In its bid for a fresh start in Russo-American relations, the Obama administration is said to be mulling a major arms control initiative with Moscow. According to the Times of London, the new effort, which will take the form of a treaty, will represent “the most ambitious arms reduction talks with Russia for a generation.” The proposed initiative now being considered by the White House reportedly envisions a reduction of each country’s nuclear stockpiles by 80 percent, to 1,000 each.


February 4:

In what amounts to a major blow to U.S. strategic objectives in the “post-Soviet space,” the Republic of Kyrgyzstan has given Washington notice that it plans to evict it from the air base at Manas. The February 3rd announcement by Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has been followed by the drafting of legislation formalizing the ouster. The decision follows talks with Russian officials over a range of issues, which culminated with a $2 billion loan by the Kremlin to its former satellite. "The Russians have offered them money to close it; we're offering them money to keep it open," George Freidman, CEO of Stratfor, tells National Public Radio. "So unlike previous times when the essential issue was the Kyrgyzstan government trying to shake down the United States for more cash, this time it's more of a bidding war."


February 6:

The Russian government is ramping up its quest for the Arctic, sparking fears in Europe of a new arena for military confrontation with Moscow. “At a Nato conference, the Secretary-General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, warned that members might need a military presence in the Arctic because of growing tensions,” writes Bronwen Maddox in the Times of London. “Russia, with a third of its territory north of the Arctic Circle, has been noisiest in its claims. Its Defence Ministry has prepared a national directive, laying claim to large parts of the region.”

Climate change, meanwhile, is only exacerbating these worries. “Two summers in which the Arctic ice has melted much further than expected have suggested that the Northwest Passage, a hugely valuable sea route, might open up through the once-frozen sea,” Maddox notes. “Russia is laying the ground for the contest with military showiness, comic to those at some distance but menacing to immediate neighbours.”