Russia Reform Monitor: No. 1965

Related Categories: Russia; Ukraine

March 8:

Anti-Americanism in Russia is soaring amid ongoing Western pressure on the Kremlin over Ukraine. TheWashington Post cites a new poll by the Levada Center as gauging that more than 80 percent of Russians now "hold negative views of the United States." That number, the Post notes, surpasses the anti-Americanism prevalent in the Soviet Union during the decades of the Cold War, when the U.S. was regarded as the "main enemy" of Moscow.

Much of the problem, observers say, comes from official Kremlin propaganda, which for years has cultivated a sense of grievance toward the West among ordinary Russians and depicted the U.S. as antagonistic and domineering. This effort "radically changed the atmosphere in the society," according to Levada's Lev Gudkov, with grave results. "It has become militarist."

March 9:

The annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula was a premeditated affair, Russia's President has admitted. In a recent interview aired on Russian television, the Vladimir Putin said that the plan to annex the territory was initiated in February of last year, weeks before the region's formal mid-March vote in favor of accession to the Russian Federation. As The Moscow Times points out, the news is a bombshell, because Kremlin officials previously insisted that the region's referendum was an organic one - and that the decision to annex the territory only occurred after the fact.

March 11:

Russia's energy plans may take longer than the Kremlin hopes to come to fruition. According to The Moscow Times, the Russian government is eager to forge ahead with "Turkish Stream," the natural gas pipeline route that has become the centerpiece of Moscow's energy policy following Europe's decision to terminate the prospective "South Stream" project last Fall over Ukraine. But making "Turkish Stream" a reality might be more complicated than Moscow envisions. Turkey, initially eager to move forward with the pipeline, now appears to be having second thoughts about the project. At issue, the Times reports, is Ankara's "concern about too much dependence on Russian energy." As a result, Turkish government officials have intimated that despite Russia's eagerness the project "will be delayed to at least 2017," or perhaps even later.

Moscow is expanding its military focus on the Arctic. Defense News reports that, as part of its ongoing push to the north, Russia has reopened former Soviet bases in the region and has formed a Northern Joint Strategic Command, which will oversee the deployment of sea, ground, and air units there. The trade weekly cites analyst Anton Lavrov of Moscow's Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies as writing that, contrary to Kremlin rhetoric, the move is an adventurist rather than a defensive one. "Russia is not facing any direct military threats from the north," he has written. "Its military buildup in the Arctic pursues long-term goals rather than any immediate objectives."

Good news may be in store for Ukraine as Moscow's money and manpower dwindle. A recent report released by Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reveals that the Kremlin is struggling to keep its operations in Ukraine going, writes The Guardian. Despite Moscow's repeated denials, the report notes a total of 42,000 Russian troops in the Ukrainian theater, with 117 combat and combat-support units directly involved in the conflict. However, according to the RUSI report, "the military capabilities required to carry out the operation are already reaching their limits." Moreover, the report discloses that Russian troops stationed in Ukraine may have been coerced or deceived into fighting. In order to prevent them from deserting the frontlines, "barrier squads" from the interior ministry's Dzerzhinskiy division reportedly have been set up.