China Reform Monitor: No. 1152

February 18:

Recent amendments to Russia’s migration legislation have raised the Russian language exam requirements for Chinese migrant laborers, adding a written exam, and sections on Russian history, language and law. All migrant workers must pass the new exam according to the latest amendments. A presidential envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District, Yuriy Trutnev, has called for an easing the standards, a proposition backed by Khabarovsk regional education minister Alla Kuznetsova. AmurMedia news agency reports that 46,000 foreign construction workers must take the new exams, “which native speakers do not always pass the first time.”

February 26:

An investigation by Spain’s Central Drug and Organized Crime Unit has arrested two Chinese and two Belarusian nationals in Madrid with 300,000 euros and them accused of illegally smuggling large amounts of undeclared cash to China – $22.5 million only in the 18 months that the investigation lasted. Polish authorities informed Spain about the group and identified Huang Bingzhen, a Chinese national, as the bagman. Driving a specially-prepared automobile, Huang would pick up large amounts of cash pooled together by Chinese businesses operating around Spain and drive it to Warsaw, Poland where it would be transferred to China via Belarusians in Moscow. Five other arrests were made bringing the total cash seizer to 663,000 euros. In May, 2014 Huang was stopped crossing the Spanish-French border with 700,000 euros in his car,ABC Espania reports.

March 2:

An Argentinean Air Force delegation will visit China to evaluate whether it will buy up to 20 Chinese jet fighters to replace its French Mirages. One option is the FC-1/F-17 ‘Thunder’ manufactured by Chendu Aircraft Corp. Another is the Chengdu J-10B fighter which, according to Beijing, has the capability of confronting the British “Typhoons stationed in the Falkland Islands.” Beijing argues that the FC-1 “would be a waste of money” compared to the J-10B, which can be equipped with mid-range air to air missiles and close range missiles. Argentina is also considering Spain’s refurbished Mirage F1, France’s Mirage 2000 and Israel’s Kfir. A month ago President Cristina Fernandez sealed an “integral strategic alliance” with China including an extensive arms supply deal, Mercopress reports.

March 6:

In an editorial in the Wall Street Journal entitled “The Coming Chinese Crackup” George Washington University Professor David Shambaugh predicts the collapse of the Communist Party of China. “The endgame of Chinese communist rule has now begun, I believe, and it has progressed further than many think. We don’t know what the pathway from now until the end will look like, of course. It will probably be highly unstable and unsettled. Communist rule in China is unlikely to end quietly. Its demise is likely to be protracted, messy and violent. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Mr. Xi will be deposed in a power struggle or coup d’état.”

March 11:

The official China Daily published an article entitled “Shambaugh China Essay Rebuffed” that quotes a slate of Washington-based China experts. First cited is David M. Lampton of Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies who said: “I don't agree with Shambaugh's characterizations in the article. We need to be modest about what we know and don't know about economic and political developments in China.” Chi Wang, president and chair of the U.S.-China Policy Foundation, said China should continue to crack down on bribery and wrongdoing. “China really needs President Xi's idea of getting rid of corruption throughout China under the legal system. This is the No 1 priority.” Stephen Harner, a former U.S. diplomat and business consultant who lived in China for two decades, said he “absolutely rejects” Shambaugh’s “astonishingly ill-informed” conclusions.