Russia Policy Monitor No. 2674

MANAGING, NOT FIGHTING, DEMOGRAPHIC DECLINE
For more than two decades now, the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin has struggled to reverse the country's protracted trajectory of demographic decline. But despite massive capital investments and sundry governmental initiatives designed to promote more robust child-bearing, the trendline has remained largely unaltered. Now, the Kremlin has released a new strategy document outlining priorities for demography and family policy for the next decade. But, writes Russia expert Paul Goble, Moscow's new demographic plan is not so much a formula for population growth, but for managing its ongoing decline.

Goble, citing Russian demographers, outlines that the new strategy "is at best 'a strategy of the withering away' of the Russian nation with the Kremlin serving as its funeral staff." Rather than outlining efforts to boost the country's birth rate, he notes, Moscow is now banking "on 'replacing' the existing Russian population with migrants from one part of the world or another, something Russians fear and that almost all of them oppose." (Window on Eurasia, March 28, 2025)

PLUMMETING MORALE IN THE RUSSIAN MILITARY
More than three years after the start of its "special military operation," Russia shows no sign of slowing its fight against Ukraine. In fact, exploiting what is, at least for the moment, a more hands-off American approach to the conflict, the Kremlin is pressing its advantage through new battlefield offensives and ramped-up recruitment (see Russia Policy Monitor no. 2673). The latter trend is particularly significant because low morale in the Russian armed forces is leading to soldiers deserting in large numbers. "Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian military courts have handed down mass sentences on desertion and simulation of illness," the Barents Observer reports. Irregular departures from the Russian military have become so ubiquitous that the Murmansk region now operates six garrison military courts simultaneously in order to handle the large numbers of soldiers being tried.

The aggregate total is staggering. "If we add up all the mentioned decisions by garrison courts in northern Russia, there are more than 800 court decisions under Articles 337, 338, and 339 of the Criminal Code, starting from the spring of 2022," the Observer notes. "This is a minimum, as many courts do not publish decisions or hide them under general terms. The northern regions, especially those with military bases, are now areas where military personnel flee, hide, and fake illness." (The Barents Observer, April 7, 2025)

RUSSO-IRANIAN TIES GET DEEPER STILL
Moscow's partnership with Tehran continues to expand. Earlier this month, the Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, ratified a new, two decade strategic partnership agreement with the Islamic Republic. That pact was agreed to by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian back in January. It reportedly expands cooperation between the two countries on military and security issues, and contains a framework for stepped-up joint military drills, both on Russian and Iranian territory and potentially beyond. (Reuters, April 8, 2025)

RUSSIA BEEFS UP NAVAL REARMAMENT...
Over the preceding three-plus years of the Ukraine war, Russia's military has encountered many significant setbacks. None, however, have been as striking as its failures in the maritime domain, where Russia's navy has been routinely outclassed by a country that does not possess one. Now, Russia's government is moving to rectify its current maritime weakness. President Putin recently told Kremlin officials that he was allocating a whopping 8.4 trillion rubles, or some $100 billion, to carry out naval modernization over the coming decade. The initiative is intended to build on what Putin has termed "large-scale Naval modernization" that is already underway by further strengthening shipbuilding and upgrading the Russian Navy's strategic nuclear force capabilities. (Newsweek, April 11, 2025)

...AND SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE ARCTIC
Russia's new push for naval capabilities also has a clear target: the Arctic. In a late March speech before the International Arctic Forum in Murmansk, Putin spoke at length about his government's plans to expand the country's icebreaker fleet (already the biggest in the world), create a sovereign Russian Arctic merchant fleet, and increase the transport of liquified natural gas in the "northern seas." He also spoke about President Trump's desires to gain control over Greenland as proof that "the United States will continue to consistently advance its geo-strategic, military-political and economic interests in the Arctic" – something to which Moscow needs an answer. (Russia Today, March 28, 2025)