HOW RUSSIA IS PACIFYING CHECHNYA
The Republic of Chechnya, situated in the North Caucasus, has long ranked as one of Russia's most restive regions. In recent years, its Kremlin-aligned strongman, Ramzan Kadyrov, has kept the region in line with the Russian government's policies and prerogatives – by force if necessary. But another factor has also contributed to Chechnya's place as one of the Kremlin's most dependable (and largely docile) subjects: payoffs. "Russia's Equality Project, using official statistics, has concluded that Moscow last year sent financial aid to Chechnya on a per capita basis 95,000 rubles (950 US dollars) twice as much as the central government is sending to other citizens of the Russian Federation (48,500 rubles or 485 US dollars)," writes Paul Goble in his Window on Eurasia blog.
The results are striking. "Moscow is funding 92 percent of Chechen republic government expenses, part of the Kremlin's bargain with the Kadyrov regime which the former provides the money and the latter keeps Chechnya [pacified]," according to Goble. (Window on Eurasia, July 5, 2025)
DEMOGRAPHICS AND RUSSIA'S DIFFICULT LABOR FUTURE
Russia's fraught demographic situation (a topic we have covered extensively in prior issues of the Russia Policy Monitor) continues to steadily worsen, despite the best efforts of the Kremlin to spur birthrates and build "maternal capital." The latest warning comes from Russian Labor Minister Anton Kotyakov, who has cautioned Russian President Vladimir Putin that – thanks to population decline and out-migration – by 2030 the country could be running a deficit of as much as three million workers. (Newsweek, July 16, 2025)
[EDITORS' NOTE: The projection puts the Kremlin on the horns of a serious dilemma. Over the past three-and-a-half years, as a result of Russia's war of choice on Ukraine, the country has progressively found itself shut out of Western markets. Russia's government has relied heavily on beefing up domestic industry (particularly its defense sector) in recent years, as Western markets have disengaged from commerce with Russia due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. At the same time, Putin's increasingly nationalist, draconian governing style has made the country a hostile environment for non-Russians, and cast a pall over Russia as both a tourist and labor destination. But, demographers say, the only answer to the looming labor shortage outlined by Kotyakov is to rely more and more heavily on migrant workers – something that will be difficult to do, given the Kremlin's exclusionary policies.]
ESPIONAGE IN NORWAY...
Unknown men and vehicles without license plates regularly trail inhabitants of the arctic town of Kirkenes, and locals are on high alert due to the level of Russian espionage. European intelligence characterizes the Norwegian town as a laboratory for Russian hybrid warfare, including espionage and sabotage attacks. The regional chief of Norway's intelligence organization, the PST, says these grey-zone activities "blur the traditional lines between war and peace." Norway's military and border officials in the region – largely teenage conscripts with minimal training and experience – are tasked with keeping close watch of Russian fishing ships arriving each day from Murmansk, home of Russia's northern fleet. The Norwegian soldiers are charged with tasks such as preventing photography of military installations and areas. (Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2025)
...AND SABOTAGE IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC
The annual report of the Czech intelligence agency, the Security Information Service (BIS), has just been issued, and it details how Russia is recruiting migrants, generally hailing from outside of the EU, to serve as agents of the Kremlin. These recruits carry out activities ranging from arson to surveillance of military installations and aid for Ukraine. The agents are often recruited indirectly via middlemen on the Telegram app, often leaving them unaware of the fact that they are working for the Russian government. In one such attack, a man was sentenced to eight years in prison for setting a bus depot ablaze. Kremlin agents previously blew up an ammo depot in Vrbětice in 2014, killing two people and resulting in the expulsion of Russian diplomats from the country. The threat, moreover, is ongoing; on the day of the report's publication, Czech media reported that the country's military intelligence had detained a taxi driver planning another attack against an ammunition factory. (TVP World, July 7, 2025)
