Russia Policy Monitor No. 2691

MOSCOW DROPS MISSILE BAN
Citing growing threats from the West, Russia has suspended its voluntary moratorium on the deployment of intermediate-range missiles. The restriction has been in place since America's 2019 withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which banned the use of land-based missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, citing Russian infractions.

In justifying the measure, Russia's Foreign Ministry announced that it had "directly called upon NATO countries to declare a reciprocal moratorium" to prevent an arms race, but that the West had never done so. The Kremlin further accused the U.S. of building, testing, and using intermediate missiles in areas sensitive to Russia's security interests, and that therefore the conditions for its moratorium "have ceased to exist." The Foreign MInistry stated that further "response measures" would be implemented in response to the scale of Western deployments. "This is a new reality all our opponents will have to reckon with. Expect further steps," Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote on X. (The Moscow Times, August 5, 2025)

GROWING INROADS INTO AFRICA
As France withdraws from Africa, Russia is working to take its place as the continent's newest security guarantor. Moscow has already placed both military contractors and soldiers in seven regional states, and its advisors are active in more than 30 countries across the continent. A cascade of military coups across the Sahel have paved the way for Moscow to offer its support in exchange for increased influence.

Russia's influence on the continent is more than military. A recent study by the National Defense University's Africa Center for Strategic Studies found that Russia has carried out no fewer than 80 disinformation campaigns spanning African countries to date – accounting for 40 percent of all documented disinformation campaigns on the continent.

Russia's presence in Africa is also geared toward an additional goal: acquiring natural resources from African nations to bankroll its ongoing war on Ukraine. A recent EU study found that Russia has already managed to acquire notable supplies of strategic resources – ranging from uranium to oil – from countries such as the Central African Republic, Namibia and Sudan. And a recently-published U.S. intelligence report estimates that, since 2022, Russia has made more than $2.5 billion as a result of its access to African gold. (Al Hurra, July 30, 2025)

RUSSIA DRILLS FOR PACIFIC DEFENSE
Last month, Russia's Pacific Fleet launched a series of naval exercises in its Far East regions of Primorye and Kamchatka. The drills, part of the larger "July Storm" training campaign, are designed to increase the Fleet's combat readiness in "non-standard" scenarios, and are conducted in cooperation from the Federal Security Service (FSB) and border patrol units. The training operation involves 150 warships and support vessels, 120 aircraft, almost 1,000 pieces of military hardware and over 15,000 troops. (The Moscow Times, July 24, 2025)

HYBRID WAR, AND THE HIJACKING OF A NORWEGIAN DAM
Back in April, Russian hackers gained control of a dam in western Norway, opening its floodgate for four hours, discharging 500 liters (132 gallons) of water per second. Norwegian intelligence acknowledged Russia as the perpetrator of the April intrusion for the first time earlier this month, saying it was one of many indicators of Russia's increasingly dangerous hybrid warfare campaigns targeting the West. The head of the Norwegian Police Security Service (PST) characterized its aim as "to cause fear and chaos among the general population." The Russian embassy in Oslo released a statement saying "It is obvious that the PST is unsuccessfully trying to substantiate the mythical threat of Russian sabotage against Norwegian infrastructure this year, which it itself invented in its February (annual) report." (The Guardian, August 14, 2025)