Russia Policy Monitor No. 2711

RUSSIA PLANS LONG TERM NUCLEAR INVESTMENTS
A recent official meeting chaired by President Vladimir Putin saw the unveiling of the Russian government's official long-term rearmament program, TASS reports. The document, covering envisioned procurement and manufacturing from 2027 to 2036, lays out that the Kremlin will focus on modernizing and maintaining its nuclear triad over the next ten years, as well as building up its army, air defense systems, and Russian defense industry export potential. The document has not yet been formally approved, however. (TASS, December 26, 2025)

MORE RECRUITMENT OF ETHNIC MINORITIES ON THE HORIZON
Russia can be expected to increase the use of coercive and deceptive tactics, including unlawful detentions, to recruit higher numbers of ethnic minority men into the Russian military in 2026. The Russian republics of Bashkortostan and Tatarstan experienced the highest proportional losses in 2025 as a result of the Ukraine war, while losses in Perm and Kirov oblasts significantly increased, and these trends are unlikely to change in the coming year. According to Maria Vyushkova, a researcher who studies the regional and ethnic disparities of Russia's war casualties, the country's ethnic republics will continue to experience the highest death rates per capita as the war continues. Conscription in Russian ethnic regions is unlikely to decrease as Moscow continues to emphasize conscription rates as an indicator of regional effectiveness, while regional governors seek to please the federal center. (The Moscow Times, January 5, 2026)

PUTIN DECLARES A HOLY WAR
At a religious service marking Christmas Eve on the Orthodox calendar, President Putin claimed that Russian soldiers are conducting a sacred mission in Ukraine comparable to that of Jesus. Speaking in front of a service at the Church of St. George the Victorious in the Moscow region, Putin claimed that the Russian military is saving the homefront as Jesus saved humanity, and that Russian soldiers have always performed a "holy mission... as if entrusted by the Lord himself." (The Moscow Times, January 7, 2026)

[EDITORS' NOTE: Putin's reference to Ukraine as a “holy war” is striking, but it isn't necessarily new. Over the course of the current conflict, the Kremlin has increasingly relied on its historically cozy relationship with the Russian Orthodox Church to secure added legitimacy – and religious sanction – for its war effort. A July 2025 study by the Free Russia Foundation laid out that the Russian Orthodox Church has played a pivotal role "in conceptualizing the war, constructing a cohesive mythological narrative that delegitimizes Ukrainian statehood and justifies the forced 'return' of the 'brotherly people' to the Russian state."]

A RUSSIAN CONSPIRACY UNCOVERED IN KYIV...
Danish public broadcaster DR has obtained e-mails and documents showing that the Moscow-based organization Pravfond funded efforts in Ukraine to undermine the country's defenses and promote Kremlin propaganda narratives. The Russian Foreign Ministry and the ROSTRUDNICHESTVO agency allegedly founded Pravfond to provide legal and other support to Russians abroad who felt their rights, freedoms, or interests had been violated. In actuality, however, the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) determined that Pravfond works with intelligence operatives, sponsors Russian propaganda, and seeks to spread Kremlin influence.

The news outlet Schemes obtained materials that describe the "Ukrainian direction" of Pravfond and outlined the foundation's activities in Ukraine. The materials further described how lawyers at a Pravfond-funded organization called the Legal Consultation Center prepared reports for Russian authorities on alleged Ukrainian war crimes and violations of the rights of Russian speakers, as well as reports that the center had advised Ukrainians on how to cross the border or defer mobilization. Schemes further identified four websites linked to Pravfond that support the Kremlin goal of "denazifying" Ukraine. (Radio Free Europe, December 7, 2025)

...AND ANOTHER ON THE BORDER WITH NORWAY
Russia is stepping up intelligence-gathering efforts along its border with Norway by disguising intelligence operatives as fishermen and tourists, according to the Norwegian military. There have been several recent incidents in which Norwegian authorities have intercepted Russian nationals entering the northern port city of Kirkenes under false pretenses to conduct intelligence operations. Norway, in response to increasing Russian hybrid activity, is expanding military and security capacity in its northernmost region of Sør-Varanger, including by building new border fences and installing sensor networks, surveillance cameras, and drone monitoring systems. (United 24, January 4, 2026)