Russia Policy Monitor No. 2720

MOSCOW WEIGHS ITS OPTIONS IN THE ARCTIC
The Kremlin has so far responded cautiously to the Trump administration's recent push to acquire Greenland. Russian analysts view the U.S. move, which has created significant turbulence in the Transatlantic relationship, as confirmation of the Kremlin's belief that global politics is shifting toward a "might makes right" system in which power matters more than international law – a change that potentially benefits Russian President Vladimir Putin's expansionist ambitions.

At the same time, however, Moscow has practical concerns about the U.S. effort. Russian officials have expressed worries that an increase in U.S. military infrastructure in Greenland could restrict access from the Barents Sea to the North Atlantic for Russian submarines, thereby potentially weakening the country's nuclear deterrence. An increased U.S. presence would also undermine Russian control over the Northern Sea Route. Russia also views U.S. claims as beneficial to its efforts to further divide the United States from its NATO allies. It therefore may seize on this moment to increase its military presence in the Arctic and reinvest in Arctic cooperation. (Defense News, February 9, 2026)

TEEN LABOR FUELS RUSSIA'S DRONE PRODUCTION
Russian teens are being recruited to assemble Shahed drones in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, as Moscow presses its offensive against Ukraine. Journalists from the outlet T-invariant obtained advertising videos of students from the Alabuga Polytechnic vocational school promoting employment at the Alabuga drone factory, where they earn between $1,900 and $4,450 per month. The promotional ads have already appeared on the popular pro-war Telegram channel Rybar. Media outlet Protocol and the YouTube channel RZVRT previously reported, in July 2023, that students at Alabuga Polytechnic were required to assemble Shahed drones but were forbidden from discussing the work. (Meduza, March 5, 2026)

KREMLIN DOCUMENTS REVEAL THE HUMAN COST OF THE WAR
According to Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR), classified Kremlin documents estimate that 1,315,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Those figures roughly parallel those aggregated by the Ukrainian General Staff, which estimates around 1,274,990 total casualties on the Russian side over the past four years. The figures were recently briefed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has subsequently provided additional details – outlining that 62 percent of Russian casualties are those killed in action, while wounded account for 38 percent. Moreover, according to Zelenskyy, Ukrainian believe that even those figures from Moscow are "understated."

Meanwhile, Ukraine's death toll is also rising. A recent report by the Center for Strategic & International Studies, a DC think tank, has estimated that Ukraine has suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, of which 100,000 to 140,000 are thought to be soldiers who have been killed in action. (Kyiv Independent, March 11, 2026)

RUSSIA'S SHRINKING ARMS TRADE
Russia's share of the global arms industry fell from 21 percent between 2016 and 2020 to a mere 6.8 percent over the past four years, according to a study from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Meanwhile, the combined arms exports of European Union members during the same time period was four times higher, and the EU also tripled its arms imports in that time. Much of those imported arms went to Ukraine, which accounted for a 9.7 percent share of the global imports industry in the SIPRI study. Russia accounted for only 0.4 percent of global arms imports between 2021 and 2025, with those mainly coming from Iran and North Korea. (The Moscow Times, March 9, 2026)