Russia Policy Monitor No. 2724

A SETBACK FOR MOSCOW IN BUDAPEST
The April 12th electoral defeat of Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party in national elections in Hungary have dealt a significant political blow to the Kremlin. Moscow has long depended on Orban as an erstwhile ally, and the Eastern European leader has significantly complicated EU deliberations over aid to Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. "Hungary under Fidesz has long been a Russian Trojan horse within the European Union: disrupting and blocking support for Ukraine, delaying sanctions on Russia and – recent leaks have confirmed – passing details of intra-European discussions directly to Moscow," Jeremy Cliffe of the European Council on Foreign Relations tells iPaper.

The extent of this influence was laid bare in a recent expose by the Russian independent media outlet Agentstvo, which detailed that out of the 47 staff members in the Russian embassy to Hungary, 15 have ties to multiple Russian intelligence agencies. The outlet further alleged that 6 others "may have" similar ties. These connections include multiple staff with backgrounds in the Russian military of Defense Ministry, while other employees possess addresses registered in buildings where known Russian intelligence officers reside. (TVP World, April 9, 2026; iPaper, April 12, 2026)

[EDITORS' NOTE: Ahead of this weekend's vote, Russia had reportedly worked actively to ensure a favorable electoral outcome for Orban, including through the deployment of public diplomacy and strategic communications professionals to Budapest to burnish his image (and sully that of his political rival, Peter Magyar). Last month, the Kyiv Independent reported that the Kremlin had dispatched a team of social media specialists from the GRU, Russia's military intelligence agency, to Budapest, where it was believed they would be "applying the same set of methods deployed during the Moscow-backed meddling in the Moldovan parliamentary elections last year." (See Russia Policy Monitor no. 2719)]

MOSCOW BOOSTS IRANIAN STRIKES
From the start of the war with Iran, Russian satellite imagery has been used to help the Islamic Republic locate U.S. and Western military facilities and critical sites in the Middle East. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian and Iranian hackers are working together in the cyber domain to attack the U.S., with Russian satellite surveillance of specific areas aiding Iranian targeting. Russia has recently surveilled parts of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Kuwait, UAE, Israel, Qatar, Iraq, and Bahrain, and the Strait of Hormuz is also being actively tracked by Russian satellites. (Reuters, April 7, 2026)

A BUDGET BLOWOUT
In a sign of Russia's mounting economic woes, the country's federal budget deficit has already surpassed its full-year projection. The causes, according to The Moscow Times, are a sharp decline in energy revenues and an enormous spike in government spending, which have accelerated depletion of the country's coffers. Russia's Finance Ministry recently released data showing that the deficit had already reached $58.8 billion in the first three months of 2026, blowing past the $48.6 billion previously predicted as the total annual deficit.(The Moscow Times, April 9, 2026)

[EDITORS' NOTE: Notably, these economic woes are persisting despite the current U.S. conflict with Iran, which has seen a significant spike in the world price of oil. For its part, Ukraine has worked to diminish the economic windfall provided to Russia by targeting the country's energy export facilities – and, as of this writing, taking approximately 20% of them offline.]

THE KREMLIN TARGETS ANOTHER RIGHTS GROUP
Last week, Russia's Supreme Court ruled that the Nobel Prize-winning human rights group Memorial was an "extremist" organization. The declaration was followed by an immediate ban on the group's activities – restrictions which will allow the Kremlin to target and prosecute anyone affiliated with the group or providing it with support (including simply sharing its material). In its ruling, the Supreme Court claimed that the group is "anti-Russian in nature and aimed at destroying the basic foundations of Russian statehood."

Memorial, started in the late 1980s, is a human rights group aimed, first and foremost, at commemorating those oppressed by Soviet political persecution. Its contemporary activities have expanded to track and advocate against the excesses of the Putin regime. The Kremlin has long tried to silence this group, previously labeling it as a "foreign agent" and levying heavy fines on the organization. In 2024, Oleg Orlov, the chairman of Memorial's board, was imprisoned for "discrediting the Russian armed forces" over his opposition to the Ukraine war. (Deutsche Welle, April 9, 2026)