MOSCOW RAMPS UP NAVAL OPERATIONS
From January 1st to July 31st, Russia stepped up its naval operations around the UK and North Atlantic – increasing them by 25% as compared to the same timeframe in 2025. In particular, increased Russian naval activity near the UK has been noted after the Royal Navy interdicted the sanctioned shadow oil tanker MT Smyrtos back in June. The UK has sanctioned more than 500 vessels since the start of the year, resulting in a 24% decrease in Russian oil and gas revenue compared to last year. (U.S. Naval Institute News, August 11, 2026)
THE COST OF WAR CRITICISM
Andrei Klepach, the chief economist at Russia's state development corporation VEB.RF, was fired after presenting a report arguing that Russia cannot win a war of attrition against Ukraine, and is falling behind economically and technologically. Klepach bluntly reported that Russia is losing the war "in some ways" to Ukraine, and is being outflanked by both China and the U.S. Klepach expressed concern that Russia is also courting a social crisis as Ukraine targets Russian infrastructure and Western sanctions hit the economy.
Klepach delivered the report back in May at the Moscow Exchange's Nikitsky Club, but his remarks only attracted attention after The Moscow Times published excerpts of his report on August 14th. An anonymous source told the independent Russian outlet The Bell that Klepach was fired after VEB.RF leadership received a call "from above," indicating that the Kremlin wanted him gone. A second source confirmed that the firing is related to Klepach's May remarks. (The Bell, August 16, 2026)
RUSSIA ATTACKS GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLIES
Russia struck an estimated 50 cargo ships in June and July, including civilian grain ships coming out of Ukraine, threatening global food supply chains in the process. Dmytro Barinov, president of the Ukrainian Ports Association, warned that Russia is "hunting" Ukrainian civilian cargo ships as it targets the port of Odesa and two other critical ports, potentially trapping millions of tons of grain. Ukraine is a major producer of staple grains including wheat, corn, and barley, and this summer's strikes echo the 2022 Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports, which placed an estimated 70 million people at increased risk of acute food insecurity. These strikes violate multiple treaties, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. (New York Times, August 13, 2026)
ANOTHER WAY THE UKRAINE WAR IS COMING HOME
In recent weeks, the Ukrainian government has turned the tables on the Kremlin and brought the war home for ordinary Russians through drone strikes deep into Russian territory. Those strikes, which have targeted critical infrastructure and caused fuel shortages, have shattered the illusion for many that the conflict represents a distant entanglement. Now, the strikes are demonstrating the immediacy of the conflict in another way as well: by hiking up housing insurance.
Citing reports from the Kommersant newspaper, Paul Goble notes that "major banks are now checking to see that the insurance borrowers have or plan to take out includes coverage of damages from drones and their parts." "Policies including such coverage cost from ten to 20 percent more than those which don't," he writes, "but if borrowers don't have this kind of coverage, the banks are increasing the interest rate on loans they extend by between 0.5 and 2.0 percent or even 'refusing' to agree to offer a mortgage at all." (Window on Eurasia, August 20, 2026)
RUSSIA PREPARES FOR NEW ROUND OF MOBILIZATION
In July, Russian military officers flew from St. Petersburg to the Kaliningrad enclave on the Baltic Sea to oversee readiness planning and procedures for mobilization in the region, the Wall Street Journal reports. The planning exercise is said to be one of many now being conducted across Russia in case the mobilization call is made by the Kremlin. Although such a decision has not yet been made, it appears increasingly likely given that Russia's ongoing manpower issues may force Moscow to launch another round of mobilization if it seeks to continue its war effort. (Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2026)
