Russia Policy Monitor No. 2741

UKRAINE DRONE STRIKES IMPACT SHIPPING TO RUSSIA
MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co., the world's top container shipper, suspended booking to and from Russia's Black Sea Novorossiysk port late last month, following a drone strike against one of its vessels. The company began to limit its operations in Russia following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with remaining shipments primarily including food, clothing, or medicine. MSC still operates from other Russian ports, including St. Petersburg. (Bloomberg, August 26, 2026)

WITH WAR AS A BACKDROP, AN EXPANDED RIGHT TO SEIZE PROPERTY
On August 24th, President Vladimir Putin issued a decree mandating that the Russian government can temporarily seize control of critical infrastructure facilities, if private owners fail to protect the infrastructure from Ukrainian drone strikes, or if they fail to rebuild them following a strike. The decree extends to energy infrastructure and industrial, communications, transportation, and logistics facilities. Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov claimed that the order isn't meant to imply the nationalization of companies or a change in ownership, only that the state will step in to solve specific security problems for enterprises. However, analysts think that the Kremlin is seeking to take control of certain enterprises in order to boost defense. The move comes as Ukraine steps up its long-range strikes against Russian infrastructure and companies, including online retailer Wildberries. (PBS, August 25, 2026)

NEW BRIDGE BRINGS NORTH KOREA STILL CLOSER
Russia and North Korea have nearly completed construction of a road bridge linking the two countries over the Tumen River, according to Planet satellite imagery reviewed by Defense News. The imagery indicates that the North Korean approach to the bridge is completed, including a customs building and a controlled entry point. The Russian side is still under construction, but the footprint for a large customs building and the gravel for a future highway have been laid. The crossing runs parallel to a longstanding rail hub that has seen significant activity since 2022, and mirrors the period in which Pyongyang has provided active military support to Moscow for the Ukraine war. (Defense News, August 26, 2026)

DISCONTENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE
According to Estonia's intelligence czar, discontent with the war in Ukraine is growing in Russia across all levels of society – and could lead to an abrupt collapse of the current government in Moscow. In a late-August interview with London's Telegraph newspaper, Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service Chief Kaupo Rosin argued that, while there is no evidence that a popular revolution is imminent in Russia, the opinions of those with access to "money, weapons, and information" are changing. "What do they think? In those circles, no one is talking about total victory anymore. People are discussing different scenarios and how to properly end this war," Rosin said.

Among those scenarios, according to Rosin, is the potential overthrow of the existing, Putin-dominated order. "If something changes in Russia, it will happen very quickly, and we will all be surprised," he said. "If it happens at all, everything could change literally overnight." (The New Voice of Ukraine, August 29, 2026)

A COLD SHOULDER FROM THE KREMLIN... AND A QUEST FOR NEW PARTNERS
The Central Asian republic of Tajikistan appears to be seeking to diversify its foreign policy as a result of neglect from Moscow. Meduza reports that Russia has ignored overtures from Tajik President Emomali Rahmon to deepen the security and economic partnership between Moscow and Dushanbe. The economic growth seen in other Central Asian states as Russian migrants and businesses fled to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has largely bypassed Tajikistan to date. The country remains largely dependent on remittances from Tajik migrant workers in Russia, and President Rahmon has sought to leverage issues like greater security cooperation against terror threats to upgrade his government's relationship with the Kremlin. However, Russia's leadership has so far shown little interest – leading Tajikistan to seek deeper ties with both Western countries and China. (Meduza, August 30, 2026)