Russia Policy Monitor No. 2747

RUSSIA TARGETS BLACK SEA SHIPPING
On Friday, October 23rd, a Russian drone strike struck a cargo ship 13 miles off the coast of Romania. The attack killed at least one sailor, and three more remain missing. It was the seventh vessel Russia had attacked near or in Bulgarian and Romanian territorial waters in the Black Sea over the preceding two weeks. These aerial and seaborne drone strikes have killed roughly 30 sailors, making it one of the most dangerous bodies of water in the world in recent weeks. All the vessels attacked were bound for or leaving the Sulina Canal connecting the Danube to the Black Sea. Ukraine relies on the canal to export agricultural products that make up a significant portion of the world's food supply. In response, Ukraine joined NATO members Romania and Bulgaria in calling for the Alliance to do more to protect freedom of movement in the Black Sea. (Reuters, October 23, 2026)

RUSSIAN INDEPENDENT MEDIA TAKES ANOTHER HIT
Novaya Gazeta, one of Russia's best-known independent media outlets, announced that it is permanently closing. Novaya Gazeta is known for its long-form investigative reporting on corruption, human rights abuses, and social issues. Since February 2022, the newspaper has consistently refused to publish Kremlin narratives about the war in Ukraine, describing the war as "madness." The Kremlin has targeted Novaya Gazeta and its journalists in response to its position. Since April, that pressure has become unbearable, with arrests, the suspension of the paper's donation platform, and now an eviction notice to vacate the office the paper has occupied for decades. Novaya Gazeta Europe, a legally distinct outlet founded by Novaya Gazeta journalists living in exile following the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, will continue to operate. (The Moscow Times, October 30, 2026)

RUSSIAN SATELLITES HELP IRAN'S ALLY STRIKE SAUDI ARABIA
Russia is likely providing satellite support to the Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen as the group conducts precision strikes against Saudi Arabia, analysts say. Geneva-based AURORAH Geosignal Intelligence analyzed over 40 Houthi missile and drone strikes against Saudi Arabia between July 1st and October 19th and found evidence that Russian spy satellites had converged over areas for days before and after each strike. An unnamed high-ranking Houthi official confirmed to the Associated Press that the Yemeni rebels and other Iranian allies have benefited from Russian intelligence and Chinese capabilities. Russia officials have not commented on the report. (Associated Press, October 27, 2026)

RUSSIAN AIR POWER BOLSTERS ADDIS ABABA...
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced on October 28th that his country received its first shipment of Russian Su-35 fighter jets. The delivery is the first step in fulfilling a recent arms deal between Addis Ababa and Moscow encompassing the sale of 12 Su-35s and 4 S-400 air defense batteries.

Ethiopia is seeking to bolster its defense capabilities with modern systems as a rebel coalition in the northern Tigray region reignites the bloody conflict that raged from 2020-2022. The Northeast African nation has accused its neighbor, Eritrea, of backing the rebel groups and severed relations with its long-time rival. (Reuters, October 28, 2026)

...AS MOSCOW EXPANDS AFRICAN RECRUITMENT DRIVE
Despite condemnations from many corners on the continent, the Kremlin continues to expand its foreign recruitment operations among the poorest countries in Africa. A UN commission has found that a global network of Russian agents coordinates the transfer of unwitting recruits to Russia, where they are coerced into signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense. According to Ukrainian intelligence, 45,959 foreigners from 151 countries, including 5,451 Africans, have fallen victim to this scheme to date. The Ukrainian assessment is that Russia uses these recruits to compensate for manpower shortages on the front lines and missed recruitment targets at home. (Bloomberg, October 26, 2026)

CEASEFIRE HOLDS IN OLESHKY, AS WAR CONTINUES ELSEWHERE
The ceasefire in Kherson Oblast brokered by First Lady Melania Trump in order to allow aid delivery and evacuations for the trapped residents of Oleshky went into effect on October 27th and continues to hold. It represents the first time a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has been observed without violations since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. It is expected to last into early November, when Russian, Ukrainian and American negotiators meet in Abu Dhabi.

Elsewhere, however, the Ukraine conflict continues to rage. Kyiv has maintained its deep strike campaign against Russia's defense industry and logistics. A recent poll showed that 80% of Ukrainians support continuing strikes against Russian oil refineries, even if the U.S. cuts off intelligence sharing and Starlink in response. Ukraine, however, can continue to count on support from other NATO allies; in late October, the UK announced a $13 billion financial aid package while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has disclosed an additional 500 million Euro military aid package from the Netherlands to go toward bolstering the country's air defenses against Russian strikes. (Kyiv Independent, October 28, 2026)