Russia Reform Monitor No. 2352

COLD WAR DISINFORMATION 2.0
A new white paper from the Stanford Internet Observatory's (SIO) Cyber Policy Center provides a useful road map for the information warfare operations conducted by the GRU, Russia's military intelligence agency. Produced at the request of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, "Potemkin Pages and Personas: Assessing GRU Online Operations, 2014-2019" analyzes an extensive data set provided by Facebook to paint a vivid picture of how the GRU approached this mission and what it perceived as its most valuable targets. SIO writes that "over a period when Russia was engaged in a wide range of geopolitical and cultural conflicts, including Ukraine, MH17, Syria, the Skripal Affair, the Olympics ban, and NATO expansion, the GRU turned to active measures to try to make the narrative playing field more favorable."

The authors found that the tactics were at their core sophisticated Internet-age adaptations of traditional Cold War influence operations: "laundering" a narrative by creating a false story and then legitimizing it through repetition in trusted news sources. The report delineates four "operational clusters" that the GRU used to achieve this goal: the creation of fake profiles, think tanks, or media groups; "hack and leak" operations with a second party like Wikileaks; content targeting Ukrainian civil society; and content targeting American civil society. These operations enabled the GRU to maximize audience reach and rapidly amplify the Russian state-aligned point of view being cycled through the media ecosystem. (Stanford Internet Observatory, November 12, 2019)

RUSSIA FLEXES ITS MILITARY MUSCLE TO SEND A MESSAGE
With tensions continuing to run high between Russia and NATO, new construction by the Russian military in the Gulf of Finland has taken on additional significance. This summer, the tiny island of Gogland, just minutes by air from the coast of Estonia, became home to a rapidly built Russian base equipped with five helicopter pads, a control tower, and depots for fueling and maintenance. Rather than adding any real military advantage, the construction on Gogland appears to be Moscow's latest attempt to wield political and psychological leverage against its wary neighbors, particularly the three NATO Baltic states (Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia) as well as Finland and Sweden, both of whom are speculated to be potential future members of the Alliance. Military analysts note that the Gogland base parallels other low-cost efforts by Russia to unnerve the West via the Baltics while bolstering its own domestic image as a great power. (Wall Street Journal, November 11, 2019)

"DE-DOLLARIZATION" ADVANCES
Russia's foreign currency mix will continue to fluctuate dramatically. The country's Ministry of Finance announced last month that it plans to decrease the share of the dollar in its sovereign wealth fund. The tactic of swapping out greenbacks – which currently account for $45 billion of the fund's total $145 billion in holdings – in favor of other foreign currencies is designed to help shield the Russian economy from the impact of U.S. sanctions, and mirrors similar decisions made by the Russian Central Bank earlier this year. Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev acknowledged that the decision was guided by geopolitical risk but also by an increased willingness from Russia's European trade partners to conduct transactions in Euros instead of dollars. (Financial Times, November 13, 2019)

RUSSIA'S DOMESTIC VIOLENCE PROBLEM
A gruesome crime has shaken Russia's second city, prompting new scrutiny of the country's pervasive problem with domestic violence. Oleg Sokolov, a historian at St. Petersburg State University, was arrested in November for killing and dismembering his girlfriend, a former student. Sokolov's arrest prompted the university – under recent attack for its alleged promotion of a "conducive atmosphere for sexual harassment" – to establish a center for the comprehensive study of domestic violence. The university claims that the center will be the first of its kind in Russia, where the legal system currently lacks any protection for victims of domestic violence, and where police are rarely willing to intervene to assist them. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, November 14, 2019)

RUSSIA REAPS THE BENEFITS OF OPEC CUTS
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) continues to maintain a multi-year agreement to cut oil production, Russia, an "OPEC +" affiliate, is insisting on reducing its oil production less severely – and is raking in financial dividends as a result. According to market data released by the International Energy Agency, Saudi Arabia, which has instituted cuts that are ten times greater by volume than those agreed to by Russia, is grossing only $630 million per day in comparison to Moscow's $670 million in daily revenue. Russia's current revenue figure represents an increase over the $500 million it brought in daily at the end of 2016, when the production cuts first took effect. Even so, Russia's economy is still feeling some adverse consequences, with Goldman Sachs projecting that the cuts will end up costing the country as much as half a percentage point in annual GDP growth. (Bloomberg, November 15, 2019)