RUSSIA AND OPEC+ MAKE A DEAL
After weeks of discord and acrimony, Russia and the other members of the OPEC+ alliance agreed to cut the global oil supply by 20% in an effort to shore up prices which have slumped over the past month, affecting the energy industry in several countries around the world. The cut is the largest in OPEC+'s history, a fourfold increase over the previous record, set in 2008. The plan's initial goal is to cut production by 9.7 million barrels a day until the end of June, followed by a gradual relaxation of the hold until April of 2022. The decision was made as the global demand for oil has slumped in recent months, declining by 1/3rd due to coronavirus shocks to the global economy. Even non-OPEC+ members, such as the U.S., Canada, and Norway have all agreed to contribute to the effort by cutting their own production. (Reuters, April 12, 2020)
UKRAINE WORRIES ABOUT RUSSIAN DISINFO
Ukraine's top security official has recommended a three-year extension to the country's official ban on Russian social media platforms VKontakte and Odnoklassniki. The recommendation was made by Ivan Bakanov, head of Ukraine's National Security Service (SBU), in a recent proposal to the Ukrainian National Security Council. The ban, originally implemented in 2017, is meant to curb the exposure of Ukrainian citizens to Russian disinformation intended to undermine Ukrainian statehood and sovereignty. The SBU cites a 70% decline in Ukrainian users on the Russian platforms since then as a clear sign that the policy is working.
Thus far, 100 criminal proceedings have been opened by Ukrainian authorities against operators of anti-Ukrainian social networks, which have included messaging encouraging the violent takeover of power in Kyiv. The move to extend the ban is a precaution for an expected spike in online "bot" and "troll" activity around the Victory Day and Orthodox Easter Holidays - two occasions made especially contentious as a result of recent geopolitical developments in the region. (UNIAN, April 10, 2020)
YET ANOTHER ARTIC TRAINING SESSION
Russian Mig-31 fighters and Su-24 bombers engaged in a training exercise in the Russian Arctic near the Kola Peninsula, within striking distance of NATO bases in Scandinavia. The aircraft originated from Monchegorsk airfield, near the Russian city of Murmansk. The Mig-31 is capable of reaching altitudes of 55,000 feet, a full 5,000 higher than the U.S.-produced and NATO-operated F-35. (The Barents Observer, April 11, 2020)
AMID LOCKDOWN, WHELAN CASE MOVES AHEAD
The espionage trail of Paul Whelan, the former U.S. Marine arrested by Russian authorities in December of 2018, will be proceeding, albeit with modifications. The Moscow court overseeing Whelan's legal matter has opted to move ahead in the coming week in spite of Moscow's current quarantine orders. Proceedings will be closed to both the media and the public as a precaution, however. Experts speculate that, if convicted, Whelan will essentially play a political role - and the Kremlin may seek to trade him for either Viktor Bout or Konstantin Yaroshenko, two high-profile Russian nationals currently serving prison sentences in the United States for arms and drug smuggling. The U.S. Embassy in Moscow has condemned the Russian government's treatment of Whelan, who has been denied the ability to call his family or receive medical items to protect himself from the coronavirus. (Washington Post, April 10, 2020)
AN ELUSIVE BAILOUT
Russian banks are not churning out much-needed financial assistance and loan relief promised as part of government efforts to curb the fallout of the coronavirus, which has effectively shuttered the Russian economy. Of the $81 million allocated to date by the Kremlin for interest-free businesses loans, only $1 million has been paid out so far - just 1.2% of the funds that have been requested by a combined 900 companies. Additionally, those who are seeking to restructure their loans, such as deferring payments in the event that one's income falls, are being rejected at rates as high as 85%. Experts believe that Russia not only needs to deliver on its current programs, but will also need to allocate as much as $19 billion to blunt the worst of the impending health crisis. (The Moscow Times, April 13, 2020)
UKRAINE FINDS A TRAITOR IN THE RANKS
SBU Major General Valeriy Shaytanov has been arrested and charged with treason and terrorism for allegedly passing Ukrainian state secrets to Russia's main intelligence service, the FSB. Shaytanov's alleged crimes date back to 2014, the year of Ukraine's Maidan Revolution and the subsequent Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula. They include planning an assassination attempt on Adam Osmayev, a Chechen volunteer in Ukraine's fight against Russian-backed separatists in the Donbass region, as well as passing secrets about Ukrainian military and intelligence operations in Eastern Ukraine to an FSB colonel. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, April 14, 2020; Kyiv Post, April 15, 2020)
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