South Asia Security Monitor: No. 273

INDIAN GENERAL SOUNDS OFF ON SINO-PAK TIES
The commander of India’s Northern Army has raised concern about China’s deepening cooperation with Pakistan and its growing presence in Pakistani-controlled portions of Kashmir collectively known as Gilgit-Baltistan. “Chinese presence in Gilgit-Baltistan and the Northern Areas is increasingly steadily,” warned Lt. Gen KT Parnaik at a seminar held in Kashmir. He raised concerns about the growing “nexus” between China and Pakistan, noting that it “jeopardizes [India’s] regional strategic interests in the long run” and worried that Chinese troops are not only “in the neighborhood” but “actually present and stationed along the [Line of Control]” in Jammu and Kashmir. Gen. Parnaik also mentioned that China is in involved in numerous construction projects in Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, and has built roads that connect all its highways to logistic centers and major defense installations along the Chinese border with India. Finally, commenting on China’s “string of pearls” – port facilities along the Indian Ocean being built or accessed by Beijing – the general stated “Chinese footprints are too close for comfort.” (Times of India, April 5, 2011)

[Editor’s Note: Unlike Pakistan, India’s military rarely gets involved in political matters and is firmly subservient to civilian institutions. However, Indian military officers have become increasingly vocal with their concerns about China’s growing military capabilities and its cooperation with Pakistan – a contrast with the more cautious and optimistic assessments usually offered by the country’s political leaders.]

ISI CHIEF GETS EXTENSION
Pakistan’s prime minister has extended the tenure of the country’s powerful spy chief for another year. Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, whose term was set to expire this past March, has run Pakistan’s controversial Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) since October 2008, and is widely seen as the second most powerful man in Pakistan, behind Army Chief of Staff General Ashfaq Kayani. In a rare move, Kayani’s tenure was extended by three years in 2010. Prime Minister Yousef Gilani said Pasha’s extension was necessary due to the “prevailing security situation in the country.” Pasha has been described as having a good relationship with U.S. officials, but ties between the CIA and ISI have deteriorated precipitously during his tenure, particularly over the last six months. The ISI chief has also done little to combat claims that the ISI is privately supporting elements of the Taliban and other Islamist militant groups that Pakistan views as “strategic assets.” (New York Times, April 3, 2011)

PANETTA REBUFFS THE ISI
Shortly after his extension was announced, Gen. Pasha was in Washington for meetings with U.S. officials and his counterpart, CIA Director Leon Panetta, amid the worst chill in CIA-ISI relations in recent memory. According to those familiar with the discussions, Pasha insisted that the CIA halt some of its clandestine activities inside Pakistan and “reign in” its program of targeting militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas with unmanned aerial drones. Pakistani officials have long privately facilitated (and publicly denounced) CIA activities in Pakistan, but they have become increasingly vocal in their opposition to the program since a CIA contractor killed two armed Pakistanis in a mysterious confrontation back in January. The contractor, Raymond Davis, was released in March after “blood money” was paid to the families of the victims, but the incident sparked outrage on the Pakistani street and Islamabad is seeking to rewrite the rules of conduct for the CIA in Pakistan.

However, Pasha is said to have received a cool response from Panetta, who “has been clear with his Pakistani counterparts that his fundamental responsibility is to protect the American people, and he will not halt operations that support that objective,” according to one official familiar with the Panetta-Pasha talks. Two days after the talks, held on Monday, April 11, the CIA resumed its drone campaign in Pakistan’s tribal areas after a month-long pause, firing four missiles at militants in the south Waziristan district. (Agence France Presse, April 14, 2011)

ETHNIC MILITIAS ON THE RISE IN NORTHERN AFGHANISTAN
The emergence of ethnic militias in northern Afghanistan is fueling tensions in the region as the Taliban expands its influence to a part of the country that has remained relatively calm since the U.S. invasion in 2001. The Taliban remain strongest in the South and East, where the Pashtun ethnic group predominates, but over the past year they have been making inroads in the north, where the population is largely Uzbek and Tajik. The latter two groups formed the bulk of the Northern Alliance that overthrew the Taliban in 2001 and are well represented in the current Afghan government. As the Taliban presence has grown in the North, “using scattered Pashtun villages as its bases,” Uzbeks and Tajiks have been forming ethnic militias. A member of the Kabul-based Afghanistan Analysts Network, Martine van Bijlert, explains: “Nobody wants to be the weakest one around, when the insurgency is consolidating itself and rivals are getting stronger.” Many of the governors of Afghanistan’s provinces are (former) warlords who have maintained their own armed militias throughout the past decade, despite calls from the Karzai administration to disband “illegal” militias. (Wall Street Journal, April 21, 2011)