BANGLADESH DRIFTS WEST
Historically, Bangladesh has stuck to the principle of non-alignment in its foreign policy. However, Dhaka's recent regional strategy, dubbed the Indo-Pacific Outlook, highlights objectives similar to America's approach to the region, including "the need for a free, secure, and peaceful region." Key allies such as the U.S., the UK, Japan and India have all signaled they want Bangladesh to be part of the conversation and more involved in the evolving Western approach to the Indo-Pacific. While Bangladesh still has strong ties to China as one of its major arms suppliers and infrastructure lenders, "participating in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy would bring Bangladesh closer to key trade and investment partners," Michael Kugelman of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars has noted.
To that end, Japan recently proposed developing an industrial hub in Bangladesh with supply chains that would connect to India, Nepal and Bhutan. Japan's government has approved funding of $1.27 billion for Bangladeshi infrastructure projects, one of which includes building the nation's first deep-sea commercial port in Matarbari. Tokyo plans to have the port operational by 2027, which will boost Bangladeshi trade with the rest of the Indo-Pacific, as well as increase Japanese foreign direct investment. With more than 300 Japanese companies already stationed in Bangladesh and these new infrastructure projects, an economic partnership agreement could be on the horizon. The surge in economic cooperation between Bangladesh and nations of the Quad alliance runs counter to the notion of non-alignment, and has put China on edge. (Foreign Policy, March 30, 2023; Reuters, April 11, 2023)
NEPAL, INDIA DRAW CLOSER
Since last October, Nepal has been caught in the throes of an economic crisis. As a result, Kathmandu has engaged in negotiations with New Delhi in an effort to explore opportunities that benefit both nations. That outreach is bearing fruit. On May 28th, Kathmandu agreed to develop a second hydropower project in its Eastern region, funded by India's state-owned Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam (SJVN) company. SJVN is already developing a 900-megawatt hydroelectric project on the Arun River, which is scheduled to be completed in 2024. In addition, the SJVN signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Nepal last May for another 490-megawatt hydroelectric project in Nepal.
The arrangement reflects a meeting of the minds. With these investments, Nepal hopes to boost energy trade by exporting excess electricity to both India and Bangladesh, as well as ease its own domestic power shortages. India, on the other hand, will reap the dividends of a clean energy source - something its growing economy desperately needs. But geopolitics plays a role here as well. By investing in its smaller neighbors, Delhi clearly hopes to counter China's rising regional influence. (Press Trust of India, March 28, 2023)
WASHINGTON ENVISIONS A WESTERN QUAD
The United States is in talks with Saudi Arabia, India, and the United Arab Emirates to build a massive rail and port infrastructure project linking India to the Middle East. The idea was first raised during the I2U2 forum (India, Israel, UAE, and the U.S.) as a response to China's BRI infrastructure projects. Ideally, the project would connect India to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, stretch into Israel, and finally extend to most of Europe through Greece's port of Piraeus. The UAE and India already have a robust economic relationship, and Israel is a key partner in helping Delhi to become a significant player in the Middle East and Europe. Unfortunately, since Israel and Saudi Arabia as yet have no formal ties, Jerusalem will not be part of the new project - at least for the moment. The U.S., however, hopes that will change soon, and is making a play to broker a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Until it does, though, the project will focus solely on connecting India to the Middle East, something that is still a worthy achievement. (The Times of Israel, May 7, 2023; Nikkei, May 10, 2023)
CHINA POISED TO DEEPEN AFGHAN FOOTHOLD
Earlier last month, the foreign ministers of Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan's ruling Taliban government met in Islamabad to discuss trilateral cooperation on counterterrorism and trade. Since plummeting into international isolation following the withdrawal of U.S. troops in August of 2021, Afghanistan has turned to China for economic support. Specifically, Afghanistan's new rulers are hoping to use the country's large mineral reserves of copper and lithium to attract Chinese investments. As part of its Belt & Road Initiative, China has invested billions of dollars into infrastructure projects in Pakistan as what has come to be called the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Beijing is now looking to expand the CPEC to include Afghanistan. However, China has security concerns, and wants to see more stability in the nation before it invests. To that end, the Taliban has emphasized that it would block all armed groups from using Afghan soil for activities against Pakistan and China. However, the durability of that pledge is in doubt, given that the group has failed to stop attacks targeting Chinese and Pakistani nationals in the past. (VOA News, May 6, 2023; Al-Jazeera, May 7, 2023)
PAKISTAN HURTLES TOWARD CHAOS
More than a year into its current political crisis, Pakistan's unrest seems to be deepening. On May 9th, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was ousted from power by the nation's military in April 2022, was dramatically arrested by the military on charges of corruption. Khan is one of Pakistan's most popular leaders, and has remained a vocal critic of the military. Following his arrest, the country has erupted in violent protests, which have so far resulted in eight people dead and another 1,400 arrested. In efforts to tamp down on the unrest, Islamabad shut down the internet and access to social media - an area where Khan's presence dominates. Khan was subsequently released on bail, but protests have continued and the most recent developments include the police issuing a warrant to search his house on suspicions that he may be sheltering many of the protestors. Should the violence continue, there is intensifying worry that this nuclear-armed country could become increasingly unstable, putting much of the Asia and the Middle East at risk. (BBC, May 11, 2023; BBC, May 12, 2023; Al-Jazeera, May 19, 2023)
