South Asia Strategy Monitor No. 20

VIOLENCE SURGES ANEW IN INDIA'S MANIPUR
After a brief reprieve of several months, violence has resumed in India's Manipur state, where ethnic tensions between the region's Meitei and Kuki groups have turned into an all-out war. The dispute, which erupted last year, centers on seemingly asymmetrical government influence and land buying rights between the two groups, and over time has escalated into armed hostilities. So far, the fighting has caused more than 200 deaths and over 60,000 displaced as a result of mass sexual assaults and instances of arson. In response, the Indian Army attempted to partition the state along ethnic lines - but this has proved to be just a temporary solution, as the renewed violence highlights.

The regional turmoil has directly impacted Prime Minister Narendra Modi's political standing, with the opposition Congress party accusing Modi's government of not doing enough to curb the violence. Locally, meanwhile, the ethnic fighting has forced authorities to impose a strict curfew and internet blackout. (New York Times, September 11, 2024)

THE TAPI GETS A NEW LEASE ON LIFE
After years of delay, work on the Afghan portion of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline has finally resumed. Last month, Afghan prime minister Mohammad Hassan Akhund and Turkmen president Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov both attended the ceremony inaugurating construction at the Turkmen border. Originally signed in the early 1990s as a means of addressing South Asia's energy deficit, the $10 billion project has been put on hold numerous times due to instability in Afghanistan and persistent regional tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad. Once completed, the TAPI pipeline will provide Afghanistan with access to 16 percent of its annual natural gas exports of 33 billion cubic meters, in addition to $500 million in transit fees a year. Should the construction proceed as planned, the Afghan portion of the TAPI pipeline is anticipated to create thousands of jobs, bolster energy resources for the country, and make Kabul an essential component in the Central-South Asia energy supply chain. (Voice of America, September 11, 2024; Upstream, September 13, 2024)

ANOTHER WIN FOR THE TALIBAN
The Taliban secured its latest political victory last month, with Kyrgyzstan's decision to drop the Islamist movement from its list of terrorist organizations. Bishkek's decision follows the lead of neighboring Kazakhstan, which did so in December of 2023, and parallels deliberations in Moscow about doing the same. With the endorsement of China and Russia, the Taliban have been able to progressively regain an international presence in the three years since the U.S. withdrew forces from Afghanistan. Notably, all six of Afghanistans' neighboring countries have permitted the Taliban to send diplomats abroad to staff former Afghanistan embassies, with China, the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan accepting formal Taliban envoys.

The trend highlights a larger divergence. While Western nations have conditioned recognition of the Taliban on the group's adherence to international human rights standards (which it has not yet done), Afghanistan's neighbors have chosen the approach of engaging with the Taliban, given the economic and security implications of failing to do so, both for the region and for Afghanistan's captive population. (Voice of America, September 7, 2024)

DECISION TIME IN J&K
Kashmir, India's only majority Muslim province, has held its first assembly election in a decade. Prior to being stripped of its statehood in 2019, Jammu & Kashmir enjoyed political autonomy within India, governed only by its elected local assembly. Now, with the chance to vote again, Kashmiris faced a decision of choosing between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the People's Democratic Party (PDP), or the Jammu and Kashmir National Congress (JKNC) and India National Congress (INC), which formed a coalition. The choice was a stark one. The BJP supports the central government's decision to remove the special status of Jammu & Kashmir and integrate the region more closely with India. Conversely, parties like the JKNC and PDP seek to restore the region's autonomy.

Unsurprisingly, the JKNC-INC alliance won 48 of the assembly's 90 seats, the BJP secured 29, and the remaining 13 went to a variety of independent parties. Many citizens of Kashmir & Jammu, however, remain uncertain that the election results will have a meaningful impact on everyday issues such as the lack of jobs, corruption, and political instability. But the election result carries weight outside of Kashmir, and even India itself. India and Pakistan's territorial dispute over Kashmir serves as an important source of the tensions between the regional rivals. Kashmir is home to separatist groups who advocate for a merger with Pakistan or outright independence, which has led to violence in previous elections. The National Congress party campaigned on its goal of implementing dialogue between India and Pakistan to bring peace to the region. Therefore, following their electoral victory, Asian nations will be watching the situation in the region closely. (BBC, September 16, 2024; Al-Jazeera, September 17, 2024; Election Commission of India, September 2024)