PAKISTAN EDGED OUT OF BRICS
At last month's historic BRICS+ Summit in Kazan, which was hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin, current members of the geo-economic bloc voted to expand membership by creating a new category: "partner nations." BRICS, whose current members include Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates, is an alliance founded in 2006 with the goal of advancing economic and political cooperation among the world's largest emerging economies. Last November, Pakistan applied to join BRICS - a move that was endorsed by Moscow following a September 2024 meeting between Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk and Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar.
However, the 13 new partner nations announced following the summit did not include Pakistan. The decision can be attributed to decades of tension with India, since new BRICS members are required to "have diplomatic and friendly relations with all existing" member states. Given the current, icy relations between the two countries, Pakistani membership would undermine Indian influence and heighten China's ability to advance its own agenda, in light of the close relationship between Beijing and Islamabad. Other factors influencing Pakistan's exclusion included the nation's economic and political volatility, as well as its lack of abundant energy resources compared to other, admitted nations. (South China Morning Post, September 22, 2024; Geopolitical Economy, October 26, 2024)
MODI, XI MEET TO RESOLVE BORDER ROW, RESET RELATIONS
Four years after a deadly skirmish along their shared Himalayan border, India and China have reached a disengagement agreement designed to ease tensions between New Delhi and Beijing. The announcement was made in anticipation of the October 2024 BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, following the first official bilateral meeting between Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi since 2019. The tensions between the two countries stem from competing claims to land on either side of the Himalayan border following the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Over the last few years, heightened Sino-Indian hostilities have resulted in Beijing extending military aid to Pakistan, while Delhi curbed Chinese foreign direct investment and broadened defense cooperation with Western nations.
The implications of the disengagement agreement extend far beyond the shared border between the two countries. The deal, which aims to restore pre-2020 bilateral relations and border arrangements, presents an opportunity for détente on several fronts. Firstly, it restores previously stalled patrolling rights, while limiting the potential for border clashes in the disputed Demchock and Depsang Plains. Significantly, the agreement allows Beijing and Delhi to temporarily look beyond the border conflict to focus on economic and political issues such as a resumption of direct flights between the two countries, which stopped in 2020. (New York Times, October 22, 2024; The Economist, October 24, 2024; The Hindu, October 25, 2024)
DHAKA'S NEW GOVERNMENT CLEANS HOUSE
Following the ouster of Bangladeshi prime minister Sheikh Hasina's government in early August, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus' interim administration has cracked down on misconduct by Hasina's Awami League party, designating its student branch, the Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL), a terrorist organization and arresting several party leaders. The interim government has also begun spearheading reforms, forming six commissions to address government reform in "the judiciary, the electoral system, state administration, the police, corruption and the constitution," as well as four more reform commissions "focused on health, media, labour rights and women's affairs." Yunus has indicated that elections will not be held until the country is ready, since an early election without reform would leave the new government with unchecked power. (International Crisis Group, November 14, 2024)
THE MALDIVES NAVIGATES TROUBLED REGIONAL WATERS
During president Mohamed Muizzu's visit to India last month, India and the Maldives elevated their ties to a comprehensive economic and maritime security partnership. This marked a significant shift, since the past year saw Muizzu alter historic ties by distancing from India while simultaneously cozying up to China. During the visit, Muizzu and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi agreed to a financial support package, containing a $400-million currency swap agreement, increased infrastructure investments, such as a new port and modern transportation connecting the archipelago's islands, and a potential free trade agreement.
Nevertheless, the Maldives continues to perform a delicate balancing act. This year marks the tenth anniversary of Malé's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and several BRI projects have been completed in the country to date, including the landmark Friendship Bridge connecting Malé to Hulhule Island. Meanwhile, a military assistance agreement between Malé and Beijing has given China a strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean by allowing Chinese research ships to dock there. In addition, bilateral trade between the two nations has reached $758.33 million, a 75.8-percent year-on-year increase. (VOA News, October 8, 2024; Global Times, October 10, 2024)
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