THE BUCK STOPS WITH ZELENSKYY
In recent months, Ukraine's president has taken great pains to intensify his country's anti-corruption efforts. Part of the reason has to do with growing scrutiny in the West, as the tally of aid being provided to Ukraine for its war effort continues to mount. But the anti-corruption drive is also, at least partially, a reflection of domestic politics as well. A poll published in mid-September by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation found that over three-quarters of Ukrainians surveyed believe that Zelenskyy is directly responsible for the corruption in Ukrainian government institutions. The survey, which didn't include respondents from the Russia-occupied regions of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson, or from frontline areas, reflects a potentially significant political problem for the Ukrainian president ahead of preparations for Ukraine's next presidential election, currently slated to take place in March of 2024. (Ukrainskaya Pravda, September 11, 2023)
A DIVISIVE DETERMINATION
Part of the problem, observers are finding, is the way in which the Ukrainian president has taken to characterizing his government's anti-corruption efforts. In recent weeks, watchdog groups have raised the alarm over the Ukrainian president's tendency to equate instances of corruption with treason against the state. Multiple experts from Ukrainian anti-graft agencies are wary of the comparison, since as a consequence any high-level corruption cases that may arise will be prosecuted by the presidentially-controlled Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and not by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU). Vitaly Shabunin, head of the Ukrainian NGO Anti-Corruption Action Center, outlined the problem. "[The] SBU will investigate the same cases as [the] NABU, which means that evidence in 'sensitive' cases for the president's office will be destroyed," he has warned. For instance, "[a]fter [President's Office Deputy Head Oleg] Tatarov's case was transferred from [the] NABU to the SBU — it was buried there... Now the office wants to make that into practice." On the flip side, the adviser to the head of Zelenskyy's office, Mykhailo Podolyak, believes that these policies will enhance the country's corruption fighting measures. (Politico EU, August 28, 2023)
GERMANY TAKES STOCK
German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock made an unplanned visit to Kyiv in early September, on the heels of Chancellor Olaf Scholtz's announcement, over the summer, of a commitment of long-term military aid to sustain Ukraine's war effort. While in Kyiv, Baerbock praised Ukraine's progress on judicial reforms, but qualified her statements by saying that Ukraine "still [has] a way to go in the implementation of the anti-oligarch law and the fight against corruption." Nevertheless, Baerbock assured Ukraine of Germany's "decisive support" on its EU ascension and called on the EU to be ready for "more chairs at the table," an apparent reference to Ukraine's future accession to the bloc.
That proposition, however, remains a controversial one. Kyiv is hoping to join the European Union at some point in the next two years, and would like to commence accession talks by the end of this year. However, given Ukraine's current corruption problems, the European Commission is not eager to fast track the process – at least at present. (Politico EU, September 11, 2023)
A NOTABLE CABINET RESHUFFLE
In what amounts to a significant reshuffle of Ukraine's defense apparatus and military chain-of-command, Defense Secretary Oleksii Reznikov resigned from his post in early September. By that point, however, Reznikov's departure had become something of a foregone conclusion, with rumors swirling of his imminent sacking at the hands of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. While Reznikov was never directly implicated in corruption schemes himself, the defense ministry had been beset by allegations of graft on his watch – most notably a recent scandal involving the procurement of food rations at "inflated prices." Nevertheless, Reznikov stated repeatedly that his resignation was not due to any allegations of corruption, but rather reflected Zelenskyy's desires for "new approaches and other formats of interaction with both the military and society as a whole."
Taking over for Reznikov is Rustem Umerov, who previously served as the head of the State Property Fund of Ukraine. Umerov, who is of Crimean Tatar origin, has played an active role in securing the release of Ukrainian prisoners of war, and of fostering warmer relations between Kyiv and Turkey and the Gulf states. (Washington Post, September 4, 2023)
[EDITORS' NOTE: Umerov’s appointment is significant for another reason as well. Given his heritage, it represents a potent (albeit undeclared) signal by Zelenskyy that Kyiv remains committed to the liberation of Crimea from Russian occupation, despite pressure from the West to negotiate the disposition of the territory.]
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