Thousand Sails: Why Low Earth Orbit is the Next Frontier for Great Power Competition between the U.S. and China

On October 15th, less than two months after its first successful launch, China launched a second batch of 18 Qianfan satellites. What is Qianfan? Qianfan, or “Thousand Sails,” is a project of the Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST). It is one of several Chinese mega-constellations being erected by the People’s Republic of China to rival U.S.-based Starlink, the digital connectivity startup of billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk. Other Chinese initiatives in this arena include “Guo Wang” (“National Network”) and the “Hongyan Constellation.” The scope of these efforts is exceedingly ambitious. Guo Wang alone aims to provide broadband internet nation-wide and will comprise 13,000 satellites positioned at various levels in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Qianfan is even more ambitious, intending to grow its constellation to more than 600 satellites by the end of 2025, and to eventually emplace 14,000 satellites into orbit. As a result, Qianfan’s recent launch successes have naturally reignited debate about the finite nature of real estate in LEO, which both the U.S. and China increasingly view as vital to their national economic and military interests. The ramifications abound. As China rapidly expands this network of satellites, it grows in informational power.  As a result, it could acquire a dominant position in global connectivity, greatly expanding the reach and impact of its messaging, propaganda and influence operations...