In a manner reminiscent of the first Cold War, Washington and Beijing are now competing to entice smaller countries to their side. “China and the U.S. each represent one pole, with many ‘middle countries’ in between,” observes Shi Yuanhua of Fudan University. “Middle countries represent key targets for China’s diplomacy and competition with the U.S.” To entice these countries, China uses inducements and coercion while promulgating strategic narratives to attract economic, political, and military elites around the world. The United States has been less strategic. Successive administrations underwrote a development policy ecosystem that often conflated altruism with U.S. interests. But while the United States has formidable resources, they are not infinite, and strategic competition with China necessitates a more calculated prioritization. Pivoting away from an aid-based model focused on the Global South offers opportunities to create more reciprocal, reliable, and stable economic and strategic partnerships with more capable small powers.
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