Publications

The US’ tactical successes against Iran would have a greater effect if they served broader objectives.

Wiser leaders would stop picking fights with Washington over a war they can’t influence and that ultimately advances their own security

In February 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Budapest to herald a “new golden age” of relations, signing a major civilian nuclear deal and pledging a “financial protective shield” for Hungary. This visit followed President Trump’s “complete and total” endorsement of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who currently trails challenger Péter Magyar in the polls ahead of the April 12 election. Critics warn that making bilateral relations contingent on individual leaders turns long-term alliances into fragile transactional affairs. Furthermore, Orbán’s continued energy dependence on Russia and his security ties to China present a significant paradox for the administration’s broader “Great Power” strategy.

Iranians negotiate like they’re in the bazaar,” a Middle East scholar once wrote. “Westerners negotiate like they’re shopping at Macy’s.”

Despite many US inducements, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has turned away from normalization with Israel and broader US alignment in the Middle East.