Is Putin’s Collapse Possible?

Related Categories: Democracy and Governance; Europe Military; Human Rights and Humanitarian Issues

The question of why totalitarian regimes suddenly and unexpectedly collapse has long perplexed researchers, generating no shortage of post-mortems and scholarly analyses after the fact. Accurately predicting the longevity of such regimes is a risky enterprise, and the subject of this report – an examination of how close the regime created by Russian President Vladimir Putin might be to its downfall – is inherently speculative in nature. Yet, as a direct witness to the collapse of the Soviet Union, I have a clear sense of how the sudden collapse of seemingly unshakable power can occur. What follows is my best assessment of the current state of Putin’s regime, drawing on both general observations and extensive personal experience.

To begin, it is necessary to understand the natural life cycle of regimes such as the one created by Putin. In the early stages of totalitarianism, when the masses still enthusiastically and unconditionally support a tyrant, a collective mindset congeals. I refer to this frame of mind as the “Gracián Trap” after the 17th-century Spanish dissident monk Baltasar Gracián. His adage, “Better mad with the rest of the world than wise alone,” succinctly captures the conformity of a populace (whether coerced or natural) that emerges as a result of a period of peace and prosperity.

At this stage, the fact that this relative well-being comes at the cost of lost freedoms and forfeited rights does not trouble the overwhelming majority of people. Meanwhile, a skeptical minority, capable of seeing further ahead and understanding that the loss of freedoms will inevitably exact a steep price, is cowed into silence. At such moments, dissent is seen not merely as opposition to the tyrant himself, but as defiance of the people writ large.

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