Navigating the Iranian Opposition: A National Security Blueprint for the United States

Related Categories: Arms Control and Proliferation; Democracy and Governance; Economic Sanctions; Energy Security; Human Rights and Humanitarian Issues; International Economics and Trade; Islamic Extremism; Terrorism; Iran

In the Fall of 2023, Iranians from all walks of life took to the streets to vent their rage at their country’s ruling clerical regime. The immediate cause for their anger was the September 2022 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini at the hands of regime security forces for the crime of improperly wearing her Islamic headscarf, or hijab. Quickly, however, what began as grassroots unrest over regime brutality transformed into something more: a fundamental rejection of the Islamic Republic’s religious system of government. And as the protests went on, hopes rose in the West that they might, at long last, coalesce into a real challenge to the country’s four-plus decades of draconian clerical rule. 

Two years on, however, the promise of what has come to be known as the “woman, life, freedom” movement has mostly dissipated. The Iranian regime, once on the back foot in the face of widespread domestic unrest, has now regained the upper hand sufficiently to relaunch its war on women. In recent months, Iranian authorities unveiled a new plan dubbed “Noor” to more stringently police female dress and ensure it complies with religious edicts. Its launch has been paralleled by a resurgence in the activity of the country's notorious morality police, who now reportedly exhibit "a stronger presence around Tehran's central districts, full of police patrols, morality vans and police motorcycle patrols." Businesses found not to be enforcing the country's mandate of compulsory hijab risk getting shut down, while individuals not in compliance will receive warnings and could face legal action. 

This restrictive status quo, moreover, is unlikely to change meaningfully. While current Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian campaigned on a platform that included appeals for a relaxation of the country’s restrictive morality code, authorities have tightened restrictions still further since his election in July 2024. To that end, they have doubled down on "Noor" with a follow-on scheme that aims to expands its scope and breadth. Dubbed "Tuba," the three phase plan is said to involve the training of some 1,500 "missionaries" to proselytize a "culture of chastity and hijab" in schools and education centers around the country. A particular focus of the new effort appears to be the country's youth, a demographic which has proven itself particularly resistant to, and dismissive of, religiously imposed curbs on female dress.

This new assertiveness at home has been mirrored by a more aggressive regional profile. Thanks to a confluence of global factors, from lackluster U.S. Mideast policy to the benefits conferred to it by the tragic events of October 7, 2023, the Iranian regime is now experiencing a strategic renaissance of sorts. This more favorable geopolitical climate, in turn, has helped to reinvigorate the great power ambitions of Iran’s leaders, and intensified the Islamic Republic’s activism, both in its immediate neighborhood and beyond. And while Iran’s strategic position has eroded significantly in recent months as a result of Israeli military action against its interests and proxies, the regime’s global ambitions continue to persist.

Nevertheless, as numerous experts have pointed out, the “woman, life, freedom” protests represent a watershed of sorts. They mark the crossing of an ideological Rubicon, showcasing the fundamental alienation of Iran’s captive population from its ruling regime. They also highlight a quickening in the pace of domestic unrest, instances of which have taken place with growing frequency since the late 1990s. As a result, these observers contend, Iran will invariably face another cycle of anti-regime activity, and likely sooner rather than later. In turn, those future protests may succeed where previous ones have not, and catalyze fundamental political change within the Islamic Republic. 

Click below to download the full report

Download Publication