Iran is a nation ripe for change. Forty-six years after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, its radical religious government is riven by internal contradictions, unable to supply the basic functions of governance, and increasingly rejected by its 92.5 million citizens. The June 2025 “Twelve-Day War” with Israel further exposed Iran’s vulnerabilities but did not spark a significant uprising or major opposition activity. Instead, the regime hardened its rule, passing emergency legislation, executing suspected collaborators, and accelerating succession planning.
Three “alternative futures” now loom large:
A Technocratic Transition, in which generational change brings to power a more technocratically minded and bureaucratically competent elite.
Protracted Regime Collapse, in which chronic economic underperformance, informal markets, labor unrest, and eroding rural support steadily diminish regime control, while authorities retain cohesion via the armed forces and security services.
An Internal Takeover, in which the IRGC consolidates control through the gradual absorption of state functions, leveraging its economic holdings and strategic programs to do so.
AFPC’s new Special Report, entitled “Mapping Iran’s Alternative Futures,” examines what each of these scenarios could entail, and their implications for the United States.
Click below to download the report.
