Articles

The three South Caucasus states are responding to the same geopolitical shock with radically different resources, constraints, and choices.

Are we headed toward a new war with Iran? The possibility looks increasingly likely.

President Donald Trump has now set out a June deadline for the end of the war, and the White House expects Moscow and Kyiv to reach some sort of settlement. The operative question is whether Russia’s economic calculus can truly be changed by then. 

In February 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Budapest to herald a “new golden age” of relations, signing a major civilian nuclear deal and pledging a “financial protective shield” for Hungary. This visit followed President Trump’s “complete and total” endorsement of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who currently trails challenger Péter Magyar in the polls ahead of the April 12 election. Critics warn that making bilateral relations contingent on individual leaders turns long-term alliances into fragile transactional affairs. Furthermore, Orbán’s continued energy dependence on Russia and his security ties to China present a significant paradox for the administration’s broader “Great Power” strategy.

After years of military involvement in the Syrian theater, America is understandably eager to turn the page. But doing so prematurely risks abandoning a known and capable counterterrorism partner for a still-untested arrangement. That is hardly a recipe for lasting stability.