Africa Political Monitor No. 32

MOSCOW MAKES GAINS IN WEST AFRICA
In a move that underscores Moscow's ambitious bid to expand its influence in Africa amid changing global geopolitics, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov embarked on a whirlwind tour of West Africa earlier this month. During his three day jaunt, Russia’s top diplomat visited Guinea, Congo, Burkina Faso and Chad. 

Lavrov's visit to Burkina Faso was particularly significant, with Lavrov pledging stepped up military support to the country’s military junta, which is run by interim president Capt. Ibrahim Traore. The pledge, while designed to help Ouagadougou better combat militant threats, is also clearly aimed at positioning Russia as Burkina Faso’s key security partner. “Russian instructors have been working here and their number will increase,” Lavrov announced. “We have supplied and will continue to supply military equipment to help strengthen Burkina Faso’s defense capability and allow it to eliminate the remaining terrorist groups.” (Associated Press, June 5, 2024)

[EDITOR’S NOTE: The timing of Russia’s outreach to Burkina Faso is telling. It comes on the heels of the expulsion of French military forces following the latest military coup last year – a development that put the country “in play” in strategic terms, and set off an effort by Moscow to fill the resulting void.]

A HISTORIC SHIFT IN SOUTH AFRICAN POLITICS
The once-mighty African National Congress (ANC) finds itself at a crossroads following its historic loss of parliamentary majority in South Africa's May 29th election, marking a watershed moment in the nation's post-apartheid political landscape. With its share of the vote plummeting to 40.2% from 57.5% in the previous election, the ANC now faces the challenge of navigating coalition politics for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994. With only 159 out of 400 National Assembly seats, the ANC is compelled to explore coalition options in order to secure governance. While the center-right Democratic Alliance (DA) has emerged as a potential coalition partner for the ANC, ideological fissures within the Congress pose obstacles to a stable alliance. The prospect of an alternative ANC-led coalition with the radical Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), however, is fraught with challenges, given historical tensions and policy disparities between the two faction. And amid the uncertainty, President Cyril Ramaphosa's leadership hangs in the balance. (Foreign Policy, June 5, 2024)

UN SECURITY COUNCIL EXTENDS ARMS EMBARGO ON SOUTH SUDAN
The United Nations Security Council has decided to extend its arms embargo on South Sudan as a result of persistent concerns over regional stability and arms proliferation in the war-torn nation. Despite appeals from the African Union, Russia, China, and South Sudan itself to lift or ease the embargo, the U.S.-sponsored resolution garnered sufficient support for renewal. The arms embargo, along with extended travel bans and asset freezes, aims to curtail the flow of weapons in the region and prevent a further exacerbation of the country’s current civil war. Russia, however, criticized the sanctions as being both outdated and burdensome, while South Sudan is seeking an easing of restrictions as it braces for elections in December. (Associated Press, May 30, 2024)

WASHINGTON ON THE BACK FOOT IN WEST AFRICA
The withdrawal of American forces from bases in Niger and Chad, and their potential relocation to other West African nations, were at the forefront of recent discussions between Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. CQ Brown and regional military leaders in Botswana. The U.S. finds itself at a pivotal juncture in Africa, as military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger reassess their alliances, and are increasingly turning to Russian mercenaries for security support. In his comments to reporters, Gen. Brown highlighted that several West African nations remain receptive to deepening their cooperation with the U.S., which is striving to bolster existing partnerships despite recent setbacks. Nevertheless, the recent troop reductions have ignited concerns over local capacity to manage surging extremist violence, even as African nations express mounting frustration with U.S. policies on democracy and human rights. By contrast, Russia and China have extended military aid to those places without political stipulations, making their support particularly attractive to the region’s new military regimes.(Associated Press, June 24, 2024)

TAX PROTESTS ROIL KENYA
Kenya finds itself at a critical juncture as anti-tax protests have erupted violently across the East African nation. Scenes of chaos in Nairobi unfolded as demonstrators clashed with police, leading to a number of deaths as protestors attempted to breach the legislature and set parts of the parliament building on fire. In a televised address, Kenyan President William Ruto decried what he termed as the hijacking of a legitimate tax debate by "dangerous elements," branding violent protesters as criminals. Despite robust police measures, including the use of tear gas and water cannons, the situation spiraled out of control, forcing the evacuation of lawmakers and necessitating the deployment of military forces to restore order. At the heart of the turmoil is a controversial finance bill aimed at raising $2.7 billion in taxes, ostensibly to mitigate Kenya's mounting debt burden. (Reuters, June 25, 2024)